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Species-area relationships always overestimate extinction rates from habitat loss

机译：物种与地区的关系总是高估了栖息地丧失造成的灭绝速度

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摘要

Extinction from habitat loss is the signature conservation problem of the twenty-first century. Despite its importance, estimating extinction rates is still highly uncertain because no proven direct methods or reliable data exist for verifying extinctions. The most widely used indirect method is to estimate extinction rates by reversing the species-area accumulation curve, extrapolating backwards to smaller areas to calculate expected species loss. Estimates of extinction rates based on this method are almost always much higher than those actually observed. This discrepancy gave rise to the concept of an 'extinction debt', referring to species 'committed to extinction' owing to habitat loss and reduced population size but not yet extinct during a non-equilibrium period. Here we show that the extinction debt as currently defined is largely a sampling artefact due to an unrecognized difference between the underlying sampling problems when constructing a species-area relationship (SAR) and when extrapolating species extinction from habitat loss. The key mathematical result is that the area required to remove the last individual of a species (extinction) is larger, almost always much larger, than the sample area needed to encounter the first individual of a species, irrespective of species distribution and spatial scale. We illustrate these results with data from a global network of large, mapped forest plots and ranges of passerine bird species in the continental USA; and we show that overestimation can be greater than 160%. Although we conclude that extinctions caused by habitat loss require greater loss of habitat than previously thought, our results must not lead to complacency about extinction due to habitat loss, which is a real and growing threat.
机译：从生境丧失中消失是二十一世纪的标志性保护问题。尽管其重要性，估计灭绝率仍然非常不确定，因为没有可靠的直接方法或可靠的数据来验证灭绝。最广泛使用的间接方法是通过反转物种-面积累积曲线，向后外推到较小的区域以计算预期的物种损失，来估计灭绝速度。基于这种方法的灭绝率估计几乎总是比实际观察到的高得多。这种差异引起了“灭绝债务”的概念，指的是由于生境丧失和种群数量减少但在非平衡时期尚未灭绝而“灭绝”的物种。在这里，我们显示，由于在构建物种-区域关系（SAR）和从生境丧失推断物种灭绝时潜在的采样问题之间存在无法识别的差异，因此目前定义的灭绝债务主要是一个抽样人工制品。关键的数学结果是，去除物种的最后一个个体（灭绝）所需的面积比遇到一个物种的第一个个体所需的样本面积更大，几乎总是更大，而与物种分布和空间规模无关。我们用来自美国大陆的大型森林图和雀形目鸟类分布范围的全球网络的数据说明了这些结果。并且我们表明高估可能大于160％。尽管我们得出的结论是，生境丧失造成的灭绝需要比以前认为的更大的生境丧失，但是我们的结果不能导致生境丧失导致的灭绝自满，这是一个现实的，不断增长的威胁。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2011年第7347期|p.368-371|共4页
  • 作者

    Fangliang He; Stephen P. Hubbell;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol and School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China,Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H1, Canada;

    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA,Center for Tropical Forest Science, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,Unit 0948, APO AA 34002-0948, Republic of Panama;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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