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The evolution of overconfidence

机译：过度自信的演变

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摘要

过度自信在演化生物学、经济学和政治学中都是一大谜团，因为尽管会造成代价高昂的决策错误和政策失败，它仍是人类判断和决策中一个广泛存在的偏见。在>中突行为中所发现的事例表明，动物也容易过度自信。%Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health to sports, business and combat1-4. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success3-8.
机译：过度自信在演化生物学、经济学和政治学中都是一大谜团，因为尽管会造成代价高昂的决策错误和政策失败，它仍是人类判断和决策中一个广泛存在的偏见。在>中突行为中所发现的事例表明，动物也容易过度自信。%Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health to sports, business and combat1-4. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success3-8.

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2011年第7364期|p.317-320a25|共5页
  • 作者

    Dominic D. P. Johnson; James H. Fowler;

  • 作者单位

    Politics and International Relations, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9LD, UK;

    Division of Medical Genetics and Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, California 92093, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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