Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate

David C. Frank; Jan Esper; Christoph C. Raible; Ulf Buentgen; Valerie Trouet; Benjamin Stocker; Fortunat Joos

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Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate

机译：集合重建对全球碳循环对气候敏感性的限制

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The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at time-scales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO_2 into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed γ), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median γ as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO_2 per ℃ warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO_2 per ℃. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO_2 data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for γ on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of > 200,000 members, quantification of γ is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of γ calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that γ is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P<0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of ～40 p.p.m.v. CO_2 per ℃ (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest ～80% less potential amplification of ongoing global wanning.

机译：控制大气层，海洋和陆地生物圈的碳通量和碳储存的过程对温度敏感，可能会提供正反馈，从而导致人为变暖加剧。由于这种反馈，在从一年一次到地球轨道变化的20-100 kyr周期的时间尺度上，气候系统的变暖导致CO_2净释放到大气中。这反过来又加剧了变暖。但是，全球碳循环对气候的敏感性（称为γ）的大小以及其正反馈强度的大小仍在争论中，导致全球变暖预测存在很大的不确定性。在这里，我们将中位数γ量化为7.7p.p.m.v。每℃变暖的CO_2，可能在1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v.每℃CO_2。敏感性实验排除了工业前土地利用变化对这些估计的重大影响。我们的结果基于概率方法与基于代理的温度重建和来自三个冰芯的工业化前CO_2数据集合的耦合，为γ在与政策相关的多年代至百年时间尺度上提供了强大的约束。通过使用> 200,000个成员的集合，不仅可以改善γ的量化，而且可以分配可能性，从而为将来的模型仿真提供了基准。尽管目前不确定性不允许排除从十个耦合碳气候模型中的任何一个计算出的γ，但我们发现γ落入其范围的最低四分位数的可能性约为其最高四分位数的两倍。我们的结果比最近工业化之前的大约40 p.p.m.v的经验估计低（P <0.05）。每℃CO_2（参考文献6、7），相应地表明正在进行的全球减弱趋势的潜在放大幅度要低约80％。

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《Nature》 |2010年第7280期|527-530|共4页
作者
David C. Frank; Jan Esper; Christoph C. Raible; Ulf Buentgen; Valerie Trouet; Benjamin Stocker; Fortunat Joos;
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Swiss Federal Research Institute W5L, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zaehringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland;

Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Becherweg 21, 55099 Mainz, Germany;

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zaehringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Research Institute W5L, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Research Institute W5L, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zaehringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland;

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zaehringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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专利

1. Investigation of the effect of methods of modeling the sensitivity of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and times of limiting carbon emissions on predicted changes in global temperature [J] . K.S. Demirchyan, K.K. Demirchyan Applied Energy . 1998,第1期

机译：研究气候系统敏感性，碳循环和限制碳排放时间建模方法对全球气温预测变化的影响
2. Impact of an extremely large magnitude volcanic eruption on the global climate and carbon cycle estimated from ensemble Earth System Model simulations [J] . Segschneider J., Beitsch A., Timmreck C., Biogeosciences . 2013,第2期

机译：根据整体地球系统模型模拟估算，火山喷发对全球气候和碳循环的影响
3. Impact of an extremely large magnitude volcanic eruption on the global climate and carbon cycle estimated from ensemble Earth System Model simulations [J] . Segschneider J., Beitsch A., Timmreck C., Biogeosciences Discussions . 2013,第2期

机译：根据整体地球系统模型模拟估算，火山喷发对全球气候和碳循环的影响
4. Chemical Constraints on Carbon Cycling in Northern Peatlands: Implications for Climate Change [C] . W. Cooper, J. Chanton, S. Hodgkins The Meeting of the International Humic Substances Society . 2015

机译：北部泥潭循环的化学限制：气候变化的影响
5. The atmospheric carbon dioxide variations associated with the glacial-interglacial cycles: Simulation with a global dynamical climate model of intermediate complexity. [D] . Zhang, Taiping. 2003

机译：与冰川-冰川间周期有关的大气二氧化碳变化：使用中等复杂程度的全球动态气候模型进行模拟。
6. Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle: impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide climate change and rate of deforestation. [O] . Wolfgang Cramer, Alberte Bondeau, Sibyll Schaphoff, 2004

机译：热带森林与全球碳循环：大气二氧化碳气候变化和毁林率的影响。
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate

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