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The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China

机译：气候变化对中国水资源和农业的影响

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摘要

China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.
机译：中国是世界上人口最多的国家，也是温室气体的主要排放国。因此，很多研究都集中在中国对气候变化的影响上，而关于气候变化对中国的影响的研究却很少。近几十年来，中国经历了爆炸性的经济增长，但由于全球只有7％的耕地可养活22％的世界人口，因此中国自身的经济可能容易受到气候变化的影响。然而，我们发现，尽管近几十年来中国出现了明显的变暖现象，但当前的理解仍不能清楚地评估人为气候变化对中国水资源和农业的影响，因此也无法评估中国的人口养活能力。为了得出更明确的结论，未来的工作必须改善区域气候模拟（尤其是降水），并更好地理解农作物对气候，疾病，害虫和大气成分变化的有管理和无管理响应。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2010年第7311期|P.43-51|共9页
  • 作者

    Shilong Piao; Philippe Ciais; Yao Huang; Zehao Shen; Shushi Peng; Junsheng Li; Liping Zhou; Hongyan Liu; Yuecun Ma; Yihui Ding; Pierre Friedlingstein; Chunzhen Liu; Kun Tan; Yongqiang Yu; Tianyi Zhang; Jingyun Fang;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France;

    rnState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnChinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnLaboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46 Zhongguancun Na Da Jie, Beijing 100081, China;

    rnLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS81RJ, UK;

    rnChina Water Information Center (Hydrological Bureau), Lane 2 Baiguang Road, Beijing 100053, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

    rnState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnDepartment of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

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