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Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply

机译:由于水分供应有限,全球陆地蒸散趋势最近有所下降

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摘要

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land-a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability-remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm4. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres peryear per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Nino event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.
机译:目前,陆地表面吸收的太阳能有一半以上用于蒸发水。预计气候变化将加剧水文循环并改变蒸散量,从而影响生态系统服务以及对区域和全球气候的反馈。蒸散变化可能已经在进行,但是在全球范围内缺乏直接的观测约束。在没有此类证据可用之前,土地上水循环的变化(气候变化和变异性影响的关键诊断标准)仍然不确定。在这里,我们提供了以数据为依据的1982年至2008年全球土地蒸散量估算值,该估算值是使用全球监测网络,气象和遥感观测资料以及机器学习算法汇编而成的。此外,我们使用基于过程的陆面综合模型评估了同一时期的蒸散量变化。我们的结果表明,从1982年到1997年,全球每年的蒸散量平均每十年以7.1±1.0毫米的速度增加。此后,与1998年上一次重大厄尔尼诺现象同时发生,直到2008年,全球的蒸散量似乎都停止了。主要是由于南半球,特别是非洲和澳大利亚的水分限制。在这些地区,微波卫星观测表明,从1998年到2008年,土壤湿度下降。因此,土壤水分对蒸散量的限制不断增加,在很大程度上解释了近期全球陆地蒸散量趋势的下降。蒸散行为的变化是否代表自然的气候变化或反映了土地水循环的更持久的重组是地球系统科学的关键问题。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2010年第7318期|P.951-954ⅲ|共5页
  • 作者单位

    Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany;

    rnMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany;

    rnLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment (LSCE), Joint Unit of Commissariat a l'energie atomique et aux energies alternatives (CEA), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)and l'Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin (UVSQ), F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;

    rnIinstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

    rnDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, New Jersey 08544, USA;

    rnDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3100, USA;

    rnNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA;

    rnEuropean Commission - Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Change Unit, 1-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;

    rnDepartment of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606-3390, USA;

    rnDepartment of Hydrology and Geo-environmental Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Scienes, Vrije Universiteit, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands;

    rnDepartment of Hydrology and Geo-environmental Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Scienes, Vrije Universiteit, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands;

    rnInstitute of Plant Sciences, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

    rnlstituto Agrario San Michele all'Adige, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Environment and Natural Resources Area, Trento, Italy;

    rnEuropean Commission - DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Global Environmental Monitoring Unit, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy;

    rnPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

    rnFlathead Lake Biological Station, Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Poison, Montana 59860 -6815, USA;

    rnDepartment of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA;

    rnForest Services and Agency for the Environment, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, 39100 Bolzano, Italy;

    Numerical Terradynamic Simulations Group, College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA;

    rnIinstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

    rnNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA;

    rnDepartment of Forest Environment and Resources, University of Tuscia,01100 Viterbo, Italy;

    rnDepartmentof Organismio and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA;

    rnCirad-Persyst, UPR 80, Fonctionnementet Pilotage des Ecosystemes de Plantations, 34060 Montpellier, France;

    rnNumerical Terradynamic Simulations Group, College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA;

    rnMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany;

    rnLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment (LSCE), Joint Unit of Commissariat a l'energie atomique et aux energies alternatives (CEA), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)and l'Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin (UVSQ), F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;

    rnMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany;

    rnGraduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts 01610-1477, USA;

    rnDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, New Jersey 08544, USA;

    rnMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany;

    rnFlathead Lake Biological Station, Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Poison, Montana 59860 -6815, USA;

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