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Early-warning signals for critical transitions

机译:关键过渡的预警信号

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摘要

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
机译:从生态系统到金融市场和气候,复杂的动力系统可能具有临界点,在这些临界点处可能会突然转变为相反的动力系统。尽管要在达到这些临界点之前对其进行预测非常困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的工作表明,存在通用预警信号,如果接近临界阈值,则可能表明该系统适用于多种系统。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2009年第7260期|53-59|共7页
  • 作者单位

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;

    Integrative Ecology Group, Estacion Biotogica de Donana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Calle Americo Vespucio s, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain;

    Department of Economics, 1180 Observatory Drive;

    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 55,20146 Hamburg, Germany;

    Center for Limnology, 680 North Park Street, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;

    Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department Environmental Sciences, Copernicus Institute, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands;

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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