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Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

机译：气候对温室气体水平上升的反应的预测不确定性

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The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities—defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide—substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climatepredicrioM.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels.
机译：在规划缓解和适应气候变化战略时，应考虑到未来气候变化的可能性范围。这就需要进行多年代模拟的集成，以评估混沌气候的可变性和模型响应的不确定性。基于对最近气候变化的观测，模型响应不确定性的统计估计值承认气候敏感性（定义为全球平均温度对大气二氧化碳水平增加一倍的平衡响应），基本上大于5K。未来气候变化的范围，因为在一般的环流模型中还没有看到它们。在这里，我们展示了来自“ climatepredicrioM.net”实验的结果，该实验是使用通用循环模型进行的第一个数以千计的大型整体仿真，从而明确地解决了区域细节。我们发现模型版本与其他最新的气候模型一样现实，但是气候敏感度范围从小于2K到大于11K。具有如此极端敏感性的模型对于研究气候变化的所有可能响应至关重要气候系统，以提高温室气体含量，并评估与稳定这些水平的特定目标相关的风险。

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