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The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

机译:人体动力爆发和重尾的起源

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摘要

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behaviour into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes(1-3). In contrast, there is increasing evidence that the timing of many human activities, ranging from communication to entertainment and work patterns, follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity(4-8). Here I show that the bursty nature of human behaviour is a consequence of a decision-based queuing process(9,10): when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, with most tasks being rapidly executed, whereas a few experience very long waiting times. In contrast, random or priority blind execution is well approximated by uniform inter-event statistics. These finding have important implications, ranging from resource management to service allocation, in both communications and retail.
机译:许多社会,技术和经济现象的动力学是由人类的个人行为驱动的,这使对人类行为的定量理解成为现代科学的中心问题。从风险评估到沟通使用的当前人类动力学模型都假设人类行为在时间上是随机分布的,因此可以通过泊松过程很好地近似(1-3)。相反,越来越多的证据表明,从交流到娱乐和工作模式等许多人类活动的时间安排都遵循非泊松统计,其特征是迅速发生的事件突然爆发,并长时间处于不活动状态(4-8)。在这里,我证明了人类行为的突发性是基于决策的排队过程的结果(9,10):当个人根据某些感知到的优先级执行任务时,任务的时间安排将被拖累,大多数任务是快速执行,而有些经历了很长的等待时间。相反,通过统一的事件间统计可以很好地近似随机或优先盲目执行。这些发现在通信和零售领域都具有重要意义,从资源管理到服务分配。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2005年第7039期|p. 207-211|共5页
  • 作者

    Barabasi AL;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Notre Dame, Ctr Complex Networks Res, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 自然科学总论;
  • 关键词

    MODEL;

    机译:模型;

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