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National food production stabilized by crop diversity

机译：通过作物多样性稳定的国家食品生产

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摘要

Increasing global food demand, low grain reserves and climate change threaten the stability of food systems on national to global scales(1-5). Policies to increase yields, irrigation and tolerance of crops to drought have been proposed as stability-enhancing solutions(1,6,7). Here we evaluate a complementary possibility-that greater diversity of crops at the national level may increase the year-to-year stability of the total national harvest of all crops combined. We test this crop diversity-stability hypothesis using 5 decades of data on annual yields of 176 crop species in 91 nations. We find that greater effective diversity of crops at the national level is associated with increased temporal stability of total national harvest. Crop diversity has stabilizing effects that are similar in magnitude to the observed destabilizing effects of variability in precipitation. This greater stability reflects markedly lower frequencies of years with sharp harvest losses. Diversity effects remained robust after statistically controlling for irrigation, fertilization, precipitation, temperature and other variables, and are consistent with the variance-scaling characteristics of individual crops required by theory(8,9) for diversity to lead to stability. Ensuring stable food supplies is a challenge that will probably require multiple solutions. Our results suggest that increasing national effective crop diversity may be an additional way to address this challenge.
机译：增加全球粮食需求，低粮食储备和气候变化会威胁到全球对全球范围内的食品系统的稳定性（1-5）。提高了增加产量，灌溉和耐旱性耐受的政策作为稳定增强溶液（1,6,7）。在这里，我们评估了一种互补的可能性 - 大多数国家一级的农作物多样性可能会增加所有作物全国收获的稳定性。我们使用91个国家的年产量的176个作物物种的年产量数据测试此作物分集 - 稳定性假设。我们发现，国家一级的批量生产多样性与全国收获全国收获的时间稳定增加有关。作物多样性具有稳定的效果，其幅度与观察到的沉淀变异性的稳定性稳定性相似。这种更大的稳定性反映了急剧收获损失的多年频率明显较低。在统计控制灌溉，施肥，沉淀，温度和其他变量的统计控制后，多样性效应保持稳健，并且与理论（8,9）所需的各个作物的方差缩放特征一致，以使多样性导致稳定性。确保稳定的食品供应是一个可能需要多种解决方案的挑战。我们的研究结果表明，越来越多的国家有效作物多样性可能是解决这一挑战的额外方法。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2019年第7764期|257-260|共4页
  • 作者

    Renard Delphine; Tilman David;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Calif Santa Barbara Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA|Univ Paul Valery Montpellier 3 Univ Montpellier CNRS CEFE EPHE IRD Montpellier France;

    Univ Calif Santa Barbara Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA|Univ Minnesota Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav St Paul MN 55108 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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