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Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

机译:气候作为武装冲突的危险因素

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摘要

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
机译:关于气候与冲突之间关系的研究结果是多种多样的。在这里,我们根据不同学科专家的结构性判断,评估目前对气候与冲突之间关系的了解。这些专家认为,气候受影响在各国内部有组织的武装冲突。然而,判断其他驱动因素,例如低的社会经济发展和低能力,据判断为基本上更有影响力,气候冲突联系机制仍然是一个关键的不确定性。估计加强气候变化,增加了冲突的未来风险。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2019年第7764期|193-197|共5页
  • 作者单位

    Stanford Univ Dept Earth Syst Sci Stanford CA 94305 USA;

    Stanford Univ Stanford Woods Inst Environm Stanford CA 94305 USA;

    Univ Exeter Coll Life & Environm Sci Geog Exeter Devon England;

    Peace Res Inst Oslo Oslo Norway|Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol Dept Sociol & Polit Sci Trondheim Norway;

    Stanford Univ Dept Earth Syst Sci Stanford CA 94305 USA|Natl Bur Econ Res Cambridge MA 02138 USA;

    Stanford Univ Dept Polit Sci Stanford CA 94305 USA;

    Stanford Univ Stanford Woods Inst Environm Stanford CA 94305 USA;

    Univ Denver Korbel Sch Int Studies Denver CO USA|Peterson Inst Int Econ Washington DC USA;

    Univ Antwerp Inst Dev Policy IOB Antwerp Belgium|Univ Lancaster Dept Econ Lancaster England;

    Univ Colorado Boulder Inst Behav Sci Boulder CO USA|Univ Colorado Boulder Dept Geog Boulder CO USA;

    William & Mary Dept Govt Williamsburg VA USA;

    Univ Hamburg Inst Geog Res Grp Climate Change & Secur CLISEC Hamburg Germany;

    Stanford Univ Dept Polit Sci Stanford CA 94305 USA;

    Peace Res Inst Oslo Oslo Norway|Uppsala Univ Dept Peace & Conflict Res Uppsala Sweden;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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