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The causes of sea-level rise since 1900

机译：自1900年以来海平面上升的原因

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摘要

The rate of global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 has varied over time, but the contributing factors are still poorly understood(1). Previous assessments found that the summed contributions of ice-mass loss, terrestrial water storage and thermal expansion of the ocean could not be reconciled with observed changes in global-mean sea level, implying that changes in sea level or some contributions to those changes were poorly constrained(2,3). Recent improvements to observational data, our understanding of the main contributing processes to sea-level change and methods for estimating the individual contributions, mean another attempt at reconciliation is warranted. Here we present a probabilistic framework to reconstruct sea level since 1900 using independent observations and their inherent uncertainties. The sum of the contributions to sea-level change from thermal expansion of the ocean, ice-mass loss and changes in terrestrial water storage is consistent with the trends and multidecadal variability in observed sea level on both global and basin scales, which we reconstruct from tide-gauge records. Ice-mass loss-predominantly from glaciers-has caused twice as much sea-level rise since 1900 as has thermal expansion. Mass loss from glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet explains the high rates of global sea-level rise during the 1940s, while a sharp increase in water impoundment by artificial reservoirs is the main cause of the lower-than-average rates during the 1970s. The acceleration in sea-level rise since the 1970s is caused by the combination of thermal expansion of the ocean and increased ice-mass loss from Greenland. Our results reconcile the magnitude of observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 with estimates based on the underlying processes, implying that no additional processes are required to explain the observed changes in sea level since 1900.
机译：自1900年以来的全球平均海平面上升率随着时间的推移而变化，但贡献因素仍然明白（1）。以前的评估发现，海洋的抗崩落，陆地储存和热膨胀的总和贡献无法与观察到的全球平均海平面的变化进行调和，这意味着海平面的变化或对这些变化的一些贡献很差约束（2,3）。最近对观察数据的改进，我们对海平变革的主要贡献流程和估算个人贡献的方法，意味着另一次尝试和解。在这里，我们提出了一种概率框架，以自1900年使用独立观察及其固有的不确定性自1900年重建海平面。来自海洋热膨胀的海平面变化的贡献总和，陆地储存和陆地储存的变化与观察到的海平面上的趋势和多型多个变异，我们重构潮汐仪表记录。冰块损失 - 主要来自冰川 - 由于自1900年以来，造成的海拔两倍于1900年的热膨胀。来自冰川和格陵兰冰板的大规模损失解释了20世纪40年代在20世纪40年代的全球海平面上升的高率，而人工水库的水蓄水急剧增加是20世纪70年代低于平均水分的主要原因。自20世纪70年代以来，海平面上升的加速是由海洋热膨胀的组合和格陵兰群众造成的抗冰块损失引起。我们的结果召开了1900年以来的观察到的全球平均海平面上升的幅度，估计基于潜在流程，这意味着没有必要进程以解释自1900年以来的海平面级别的变化。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2020年第7821期|393-397|共5页
  • 作者

    Frederikse Thomas; Landerer Felix; Caron Lambert; Adhikari Surendra; Parkes David; Humphrey Vincent W.; Dangendorf Sonke; Hogarth Peter; Zanna Laure; Cheng Lijing; Wu Yun-Hao;

  • 作者单位

    CALTECH Jet Prop Lab Pasadena CA 91125 USA;

    CALTECH Jet Prop Lab Pasadena CA 91125 USA;

    CALTECH Jet Prop Lab Pasadena CA 91125 USA;

    CALTECH Jet Prop Lab Pasadena CA 91125 USA;

    Catholic Univ Louvain Louvain La Neuve Belgium;

    CALTECH Div Geol & Planetary Sci Pasadena CA 91125 USA;

    Old Dominion Univ Ctr Coastal Phys Oceanog Norfolk VA USA|Univ Siegen Siegen Germany;

    Natl Oceanog Ctr Liverpool Merseyside England;

    NYU Courant Inst New York NY USA;

    Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci Beijing Peoples R China|Chinese Acad Sci Ctr Ocean Mega Sci Qingdao Peoples R China;

    Acad Sinica Res Ctr Environm Changes Taipei Taiwan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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