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The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

机译：南极冰盖的滞后

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摘要

More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
机译：南极冰板持有的一半以上的地球淡水资源，因此代表了迄今为止在未来的变暖条件下全球海平面上升的最大潜在来源（1）。它的长期稳定性决定了沿海城市和文化遗产的命运。冰，大气，海洋和固体地球之间的反馈产生了对温度变化的响应的潜在非线性。到目前为止，我们缺乏对南极冰盖的综合稳定性分析，以实现不同数量的全球变暖。在这里，我们表明南极冰盖呈现出多个温度阈值，超过该冰损失是不可逆转的。与Palaeodata（2）符合Palaeodata（2）我们发现，使用并行冰板模型（3-5），即在全球变暖水平约为2摄氏度上方的预工业级别，西南极洲由于海军陆战队而致力于长期的部分崩溃。冰盖不稳定。在高于工业前水平的6到9度之间，触发了70％以上的70％的损失，主要由表面高度反馈引起。在高于工业前水平的超过10度，南极洲实际上变得几乎没有冰。冰盖的温度敏感度为每度高达2度以上的海拔相当于1.3米的海拔相当于高于工业前水平的2度，几乎将24米的温暖在2到6度之间，每度升高到约10米温暖在6到9度之间。这些阈值中的每一个都产生滞后行为：也就是说，即使温度逆转到现在的水平，即使温度逆转，目前观察到的冰盖配置也不会被恢复。特别是，西南极冰盖在其现代程度上并没有再生，直到温度至少比产业前水平低一度。我们的研究结果表明，如果不符合巴黎协议，南极洲的长期海平面贡献将大幅增加和超过所有其他来源的结果。南极冰盖表现出多个温度阈值，超越哪个温度阈值将变得不可逆转，一旦融化，冰盖只有在气候低于工业前温度低于工业期限的情况下，才能重新获得以前的质量。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2020年第7826期|538-544|共7页
  • 作者

    Garbe Julius; Albrecht Torsten; Levermann Anders; Donges Jonathan F.; Winkelmann Ricarda;

  • 作者单位

    Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Univ Potsdam Inst Phys & Astron Potsdam Germany;

    Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany;

    Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Univ Potsdam Inst Phys & Astron Potsdam Germany|Columbia Univ Lamont Doherty Earth Observ New York NY USA;

    Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Stockholm Univ Stockholm Resilience Ctr Stockholm Sweden;

    Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Univ Potsdam Inst Phys & Astron Potsdam Germany;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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