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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

机译：弯曲陆地生物多样性曲线需要一个综合策略

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摘要

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides(1,2). Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity(3); however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge(4). Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity(5). We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
机译：需要增加努力，以防止进一步损失陆地生物多样性和提供的生态系统服务（1,2）。已经提出了雄心勃勃的目标，例如扭转生物多样性下降的趋势（3）;但是，只是喂养不断增长的人口将使这是一个挑战（4）。在这里，我们使用土地利用和生物多样性模型的集合来评估是否 - 人类可以扭转由栖息地转换造成的陆地生物多样性下降，这是对生物多样性的主要威胁（5）。我们展示了与更广泛的可持续发展议程一致的努力，而是前所未有的野心和协调，可以为不断增长的人口提供食物，同时扭转栖息地转换造成的全球陆地生物多样性趋势。如果我们决定增加保护管理的土地范围，恢复退化的土地和概括景观级别保护规划，栖息地转换的生物多样性趋势可能是二十一世纪中期的平均模型（置信区间，2042- 2061），但所有型号都不是这种情况。食品价格可能会增加，平均跨越模型，几乎一半（置信区间，34-50％）无法避免了未来的生物多样性损失。然而，另外处理土地利用变化的驱动因素可能会避免与经济适用的食物提供冲突，并降低食品供应系统的环境影响。通过进一步的可持续增强和贸易，减少食物垃圾和更多的基于植物的人类饮食，避免了超过三分之二的生物多样性损失，而栖息地转换的生物多样性趋势将在2050年为几乎所有的模型逆转。虽然限制进一步的损失将在几个生物多样性丰富的地区持续挑战，但其他威胁 - 如气候变化 - 必须解决，以便真正逆转生物多样性下降，我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的保护努力和食品系统转型是有效的核心2020年后生物多样性战略。要促进目前赤裸生物多样性的全球趋势的恢复，因此需要增加土地上的土地范围以及从农场到叉子的全球食品系统的可持续性。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2020年第7826期|551-556|共6页
  • 作者

    Leclere David; Obersteiner Michael; Barrett Mike; Butchart Stuart H. M.; Chaudhary Abhishek; De Palma Adriana; DeClerck Fabrice A. J.; Di Marco Moreno; Doelman Jonathan C.; Duerauer Martina; Freeman Robin; Harfoot Michael; Hasegawa Tomoko; Hellweg Stefanie; Hilbers Jelle P.; Hill Samantha L. L.; Humpenoeder Florian; Jennings Nancy; Krisztin Tamas; Mace Georgina M.; Ohashi Haruka; Popp Alexander; Purvis Andy; Schipper Aafke M.; Tabeau Andrzej; Valin Hugo; van Meijl Hans; Van Zeist Willem-Jan; Visconti Piero; Alkemade Rob; Almond Rosamunde; Bunting Gill; Burgess Neil D.; Cornell Sarah E.; Di Fulvio Fulvio; Ferrier Simon; Fritz Steffen; Fujimori Shinichiro; Grooten Monique; Harwood Thomas; Havlik Petr; Herrero Mario; Hoskins Andrew J.; Jung Martin; Kram Tom; Lotze-Campen Hermann; Matsui Tetsuya; Meyer Carsten; Nel Deon; Newbold Tim; Schmidt-Traub Guido; Stehfest Elke; Strassburg Bernardo B. N.; van Vuuren Detlef P.; Ware Chris; Watson James E. M.; Wu Wenchao; Young Lucy;

  • 作者单位

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria|Univ Oxford Environm Change Inst Oxford England;

    Living Planet Ctr WWF UK Woking Surrey England;

    BirdLife Int Cambridge England|Univ Cambridge Dept Zool Cambridge England;

    Swiss Fed Inst Technol Inst Food Nutr & Hlth Zurich Switzerland|Indian Inst Technol IIT Kanpur Dept Civil Engn Kanpur Uttar Pradesh India;

    Nat Hist Museum Dept Life Sci London England;

    EAT Oslo Norway|CGIAR Biovers Int Rome Italy;

    CSIRO Land & Water Brisbane Qld Australia|Sapienza Univ Rome Dept Biol & Biotechnol Rome Italy;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    Zool Soc London Inst Zool London England;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr UNEP WCMC UN Environm Cambridge England;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria|Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan|Ritsumeikan Univ Coll Sci & Engn Kusatsu Japan;

    Swiss Fed Inst Technol Inst Environm Engn Zurich Switzerland;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands|Radboud Univ Nijmegen Dept Environm Sci Nijmegen Netherlands;

    Nat Hist Museum Dept Life Sci London England|World Conservat Monitoring Ctr UNEP WCMC UN Environm Cambridge England;

    Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Germany;

    Dotmoth Dundry England;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    UCL Dept Genet Evolut & Environm Ctr Biodivers & Environm Res CEBR London England;

    Forest Res & Management Org Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst Ctr Int Partnerships & Res Climate Change Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan;

    Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Germany;

    Nat Hist Museum Dept Life Sci London England|Imperial Coll London Dept Life Sci Silwood Pk Ascot Berks England;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands|Radboud Univ Nijmegen Dept Environm Sci Nijmegen Netherlands;

    Wageningen Univ & Res Wageningen Econ Res WECR The Hague Netherlands;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    Wageningen Univ & Res Wageningen Econ Res WECR The Hague Netherlands|Wageningen Univ Agr Econ & Rural Policy Grp Wageningen Netherlands;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria|Zool Soc London Inst Zool London England|UCL Dept Genet Evolut & Environm Ctr Biodivers & Environm Res CEBR London England;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands|Wageningen Univ Environm Syst Anal Grp Wageningen Netherlands;

    WWF Netherlands Zeist Netherlands;

    BirdLife Int Cambridge England;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr UNEP WCMC UN Environm Cambridge England;

    Stockholm Univ Stockholm Resilience Ctr Stockholm Sweden;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    CSIRO Land & Water Canberra ACT Australia;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan|Kyoto Univ Dept Environm Engn Kyoto Japan|Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Energy ENE Program Laxenburg Austria;

    WWF Netherlands Zeist Netherlands;

    CSIRO Land & Water Canberra ACT Australia;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    CSIRO Agr & Food St Lucia Qld Australia;

    CSIRO Hlth & Biosecur Townsville Qld Australia;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA Ecosyst Serv Management ESM Program Laxenburg Austria;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands;

    Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK Potsdam Germany|Leibniz Assoc Potsdam Germany|Humboldt Univ Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst Berlin Germany|Humboldt Univ Dept Agr Econ Berlin Germany;

    Forest Res & Management Org Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst Ctr Int Partnerships & Res Climate Change Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan;

    German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv Leipzig Germany|Univ Leipzig Fac Biosci Pharm & Psychol Leipzig Germany;

    WWF Int Gland Switzerland|Stockholm Univ Stockholm Resilience Ctr Global Resilience Partnership Stockholm Sweden;

    UCL Dept Genet Evolut & Environm Ctr Biodivers & Environm Res CEBR London England;

    Sustainable Dev Solut Network Paris France;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands;

    Pontificia Univ Catolica Rio de Janeiro Rio Conservat & Sustainabil Sci Ctr Dept Geog & Environm Rio de Janeiro Brazil|Int Inst Sustainabil Rio De Janeiro Brazil;

    PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy The Hague Netherlands|Univ Utrecht Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev Utrecht Netherlands;

    CSIRO Land & Water Canberra ACT Australia;

    Univ Queensland Sch Earth & Environm Sci Brisbane Qld Australia|Global Conservat Programs Wildlife Conservat Soc New York NY USA;

    Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan;

    Living Planet Ctr WWF UK Woking Surrey England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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