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Clustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declines

机译：聚集与灾难性的全球脊椎动物下降

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摘要

Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations(1,2). However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index(2)). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts.In the geographically and taxonomically divided systems of vertebrates in the Living Planet Index, a small percentage of clusters showed extreme declines or increases, whereas most vertebrate populations across all systems showed no mean global trend.
机译：最近的分析报告脊椎动物种群的灾难性全球下降（1,2）。然而，许多趋势的蒸馏到全球平均指标掩盖了可以为节约措施提供信息，并且可以对分析决策敏感的变化。例如，自1970年以来，之前的分析估计了平均脊椎动物下降超过50％（活着的行星指数（2））。然而，我们展示了这种估计的百分比低于3％的脊椎动物;如果排除了这些极度下降的人群，全球趋势将转换为增加。全球平均趋势对异常值的敏感性表明需要更多的信息索引。我们提出了一种替代方法，其识别极端衰退（或增加）的集群，统计学差异与大多数人口趋势不同。我们表明，在生活星球指数中的分类 - 地理系统，16个系统包含极端下降的集群（包括大约1％的群体;这些极端下降在较大的动物中不成比例地发生），7个含有极端增加（占人群的0.4％） ）。所有系统的剩余98.6％的群体显示出没有平均全球趋势。然而，在分开分别分析时，三个系统强烈依靠（印度 - 太平洋地区所有的系统），七个人强劲下降，但肯定较少（大多数爬行动物和两栖组）。极端集群的核算从根本上改变了对全球脊椎动物趋势的解释，应该用来帮助优先考虑保护努力。在生活行星指数中的地理和分类上分割系统的脊椎动物，群体的小百分比表现出极度下降或增加，而且所有系统的大多数脊椎动物群体都没有表现出平均全球趋势。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2020年第7837期|267-271|共5页
  • 作者

    Leung Brian; Hargreaves Anna L.; Greenberg Dan A.; McGill Brian; Dornelas Maria; Freeman Robin;

  • 作者单位

    McGill Univ Dept Biol Montreal PQ Canada|McGill Univ Bieler Sch Environm Montreal PQ Canada;

    McGill Univ Dept Biol Montreal PQ Canada;

    Simon Fraser Univ Dept Biol Sci Burnaby BC Canada;

    Univ Maine Sch Biol & Ecol Orono ME USA|Univ Maine Mitchell Ctr Sustainabil Solut Orono ME USA;

    Univ St Andrews Ctr Biol Div St Andrews Fife Scotland;

    Zool Soc London Inst Zool Indicators & Assessments Unit London England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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