Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming

Jorge L. Sarmiento; Tertia M. C. Hughes; Ronald J. Stouffer; Syukuro Manabe

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Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming

机译：海洋碳循环对人为气候变暖的模拟响应

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A 1995 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a set of illustrative anthropogenic CO_2 emission models leading to stabilization of atmospheric CO_2 concentrations ranging from 350 to 1,000p.p.m. (refs 1-4). Ocean carbon-cycle models used in calculating these scenarios assume that oceanic circulation and biology remain unchanged through time. Here we examine the importance of this assumption by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model of global warming for the period 1765 to 2065. We find a large potential modification to the ocean carbon sink in a vast region of the Southern Ocean where increased rainfall leads to surface freshening and increased stratification. The increased stratification reduces the downward flux of carbon and the loss of heat to the atmosphere, both of which decrease the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO_2 relative to a constant-climate control scenario. Changes in the formation, transport and cycling of biological material may counteract the reduced uptake, but the response of the biological community to the climate change is difficult to predict on present understanding. Our simulation suggests that such physical and biological changes might already be occurring, and that they could substantially affect the ocean carbon sink over the next few decades.

机译：政府间气候变化专门委员会1995年的一份报告提供了一组说明性的人为CO_2排放模型，这些模型使大气中CO_2的浓度稳定在350至1,000p.p.m。（参考1-4）。用于计算这些情景的海洋碳循环模型假设海洋循环和生物学随时间保持不变。在这里，我们通过使用1765年至2065年期间全球变暖的大气-海洋耦合模型检验了这一假设的重要性。我们发现，南大洋广大地区的海洋碳汇有很大的潜在变化，降雨增加导致表面变新并增加分层。分层的增加减少了碳的向下通量和向大气的热损失，相对于恒定气候控制方案，这两者都减少了海洋对人为CO_2的吸收。生物材料的形成，运输和循环的变化可能抵消摄取量的减少，但是根据目前的理解很难预测生物群落对气候变化的反应。我们的模拟表明，这样的物理和生物变化可能已经在发生，并且可能在未来几十年内严重影响海洋碳汇。

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《Nature》 |1998年第6682期|p.245-249|共5页
作者
Jorge L. Sarmiento; Tertia M. C. Hughes; Ronald J. Stouffer; Syukuro Manabe;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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正文语种 eng
中图分类自然科学总论;
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1. Natural variability and anthropogenic trends in oceanic oxygen in a coupled carbon cycle-climate model ensemble [J] . T. L. Fr_licher, F. Joos, G.-K. Plattner, Global Biogeochemical Cycles . 2009,第1期

机译：碳循环-气候耦合模型中海洋氧的自然变异和人为趋势
2. On the additivity of climate response to anthropogenic aerosols and CO_2, and the enhancement of future global warming by carbonaceous aerosols [J] . ALF KIRKEVAG, TROND IVERSEN, JON EGILL KRISTJANSSON, Tellus. A . 2008,第3期

机译：关于气候对人为气溶胶和CO_2响应的可加性，以及碳质气溶胶对未来全球变暖的促进作用
3. Sensitivity of the Inorganic Ocean Carbon Cycle to Future Climate Warming in the UVic Coupled Model [J] . Tracy L. Ewen, Andrew J. Weaver, Michael Eby Atmosphere-ocean . 2004,第1期

机译：紫外线耦合模型中无机海洋碳循环对未来气候变暖的敏感性
4. OCEAN CARBON CYCLE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE: CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION [C] . Richard J. Matear NATO Advanced Study on the Ocean Carbon Cycle and Climate . 2004

机译：随着气候变化的海洋碳循环：气候变化检测
5. Carbonate-silicate cycle models of the long-term carbon cycle, carbonate accumulation in the oceans, and climate [D] . Caldeira, Kenneth George. 1991

机译：长期碳循环，海洋中碳酸盐累积和气候的碳酸盐-硅酸盐循环模型
6. An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming [O] . Vincent E. J. Jassey, Constant Signarbieux, Stephan Hättenschwiler, -1

机译：混合营养菌在泥炭地碳循环对气候变暖的响应中的出乎意料的作用
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming

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