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THE ORBITAL EVOLUTION OF THE ASTEROID EROS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COLLISION WITH THE EARTH

机译:星状色情的轨道演化及其与地球碰撞的意义

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THE population of asteroids that cross the Earth's orbit is responsible for most of the terrestrial impacts of kilometre-size objects, of which there may be several per million years(1). About 150 Earth-crossing asteroids are known, although many more are thought to exist(2). Asteroids that come close to the Earth's orbit, but do not currently cross it, may also pose a threat if they evolve onto Earth crossing orbits. The asteroid 433 Eros, with a diameter of similar to 22 km and a perihelion of 1.13 AU (where 1 AU is the average distance of the Earth from the Sun), is the second-largest near-Earth asteroid(3). Here we report a study of the dynamical evolution of Eros's orbit over a period of two million years. We identify an orbital resonance with Mars that has the potential to perturb Mars-crossing asteroids, such as Eros, onto Earth-crossing orbits; of eight trial orbits that closely match Eros's present orbital parameters, three become Earth-crossing on the timescale of our simulations, and one of these hits the Earth after 1.14 Myr. Although our simulations indicate no significant danger of a catastrophic impact by this large near-Earth asteroid during the next similar to 10(5) years, such a collision is likely in the far future. [References: 15]
机译:横穿地球轨道的小行星的数量是造成千米大小物体大部分地面影响的原因,其中每百万年可能存在数次(1)。已知有约150个穿越地球的小行星,尽管据认为还有更多(2)。接近地球轨道但目前尚未通过的小行星,如果它们进化到地球交叉轨道上,也可能构成威胁。小行星433 Eros的直径近似于22 km,其近日点为1.13 AU(其中1 AU是地球到太阳的平均距离),是近地第二小行星(3)。在这里,我们报告了有关爱神星轨道在两百万年内的动力学演变的研究。我们确定了与火星的轨道共振,它有可能将穿越火星的小行星(如爱神星)扰乱到穿越地球的轨道上。与我们目前的爱神轨道参数非常匹配的8个试验轨道中,有3个在我们的模拟时间尺度上成为了穿越地球的轨道,其中1个在1.14 Myr之后撞击地球。尽管我们的模拟结果表明,在接下来的类似10(5)年内,这种大型近地小行星没有发生灾难性撞击的重大危险,但这种碰撞很可能在不久的将来发生。 [参考:15]

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |1996年第6576期|p. 689-691|共3页
  • 作者单位

    OBSERV COTE AZUR LAB GD CASSINI CNRS URA 1362 BP 229 F-06304 NICE 4 FRANCE;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 自然科学总论;
  • 关键词

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