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OCCURRENCE PATTERNS OF FORESHOCKS TO LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES

机译:美国西部大地震的发生规律

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OBSERVATIONS of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes provide one of the few well documented cases of premonitory events that are clearly related to a subsequent earthquake. Unfortunately, the apparent randomness of foreshock occurrence-they precede some events and not others-has severely hampered their use in reliable earthquake prediction. Understanding the factors that control foreshock occurrence is critical for determining how large earthquakes initiate and whether reliable short-term prediction will ever be possible(1). Here,ve report the results of a comprehensive study of the occurrence patterns of foreshocks to large earthquakes in the western United States. The incidence of foreshocks decreases with increasing depth of the mainshock, and also depends on the mainshock slip orientation. This pattern of occurrence may be explained by a decrease in small-scale crustal heterogeneity with increasing depth, and suggests that increasing normal stress (both regional tectonic stress and lithostatic load) inhibits the occurrence of foreshocks. No relationship is observed between any aspect of foreshock occurrence and the magnitude of the subsequent mainshock, suggesting that the eventual size of the mainshock may be independent of the earthquake nucleation process, or that foreshocks are not part of this process. [References: 56]
机译:大地震之前的前震观测提供了为数不多的有据可查的与先前地震明显相关的前兆事件之一。不幸的是,前震发生的明显随机性(它们先于某些事件发生,而不是其他一些事件)严重阻碍了它们在可靠的地震预测中的使用。了解控制前震发生的因素对于确定引发多大地震以及是否有可能进行可靠的短期预测至关重要(1)。在此,我们报告了对美国西部大地震前震发生模式的综合研究结果。前震的发生率随着主震深度的增加而减小,并且还取决于主震的滑动方向。这种发生的模式可以通过随深度增加而减小的小规模地壳异质性来解释,并表明增加的正应力(区域构造应力和岩石静力负荷)会抑制前震的发生。在前震发生的任何方面与随后的主震的大小之间都没有发现任何关系,这表明主震的最终大小可能与地震成核过程无关,或者前震不是该过程的一部分。 [参考:56]

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