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首页> 外文期刊>Nonlinear dynamics, psychology and life sciences >On the Pervasiveness of Long Range Memory Processes in Daily High School Attendance Rates
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On the Pervasiveness of Long Range Memory Processes in Daily High School Attendance Rates

机译：日常高中出勤率中远程记忆过程的普遍性

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Few educational researchers or practitioners would question that high school attendance is an important mediator in the causal network that is used to explain academic achievement, yet attendance remains under-researched. The New York City Department of Education (NYCDOE) has created an opportunity to examine the longitudinal trends and dependencies in daily attendance rates as it created a repository of daily attendance rates for all its schools, starting in 2004. The present analysis examines the dynamical patterns in daily attendance rates over a ten-year period (Sept. 2004 - June 2014) in six small high schools and ten large ones. As was done in previous work, this analysis systematically distinguishes short range, seasonal and long range dependencies in the data using time series analysis. Seasonal cycles are predictable (here, fluctuation by days of the week), the long range dependencies indicate cycles that are unpredictable, suggestive of more complex dynamical processes, such as self-similarity, self-organized criticality and scale invariance, features that are difficult to detect by school building personnel, but are important aspects of the systems' behavior. Seasonal cycles were found in three of the nine large schools and in all six small ones. Significant long range dependencies (Hurst exponent) were found in all large schools and all but one of the small ones. The pervasiveness of the long range processes over and above the seasonal cycles is striking, and may suggest an adaptability of these systems to fluctuations in the exogenous processes that find their expression in daily attendance behavior (e.g., parental involvement). However, this latter interpretation is in need of further empirical support.
机译：很少有教育研究人员或从业人员会质疑，高中出勤率是用来解释学业成就的因果网络中的重要调解人，但出勤率仍未得到充分研究。纽约市教育局（NYCDOE）从2004年开始创建了所有学校每日出勤率的资料库，从而创造了一个检验纵向趋势和每日出勤率依赖性的机会。本分析研究了动态模式六个小型高中和十个大型高中的十年（2004年9月至2014年6月）的每日出勤率。像以前的工作一样，该分析使用时间序列分析系统地区分了数据中的短距离，季节性和长距离依赖性。季节性周期是可预测的（此处是一周中的几天波动），长期依存关系表明周期是不可预测的，暗示着更复杂的动力学过程，例如自相似性，自组织临界和尺度不变性，难于实现的特征可以由学校建筑人员进行检测，但这是系统行为的重要方面。在9所大学校中的3所和所有6所小学校中都发现了季节性周期。在所有大型学校和除一所小型学校之外的所有学校中都发现了重要的长期依赖关系（赫斯特指数）。超出季节周期的远距离过程的普遍性令人震惊，并且可能表明这些系统对在日常出勤行为中表现出来的外源过程的波动具有适应性（例如父母参与）。但是，后一种解释需要进一步的经验支持。

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