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首页> 外文期刊>Nonlinear dynamics, psychology and life sciences >Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion: Scheduling Dynamics of NASA's Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Activities
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Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion: Scheduling Dynamics of NASA's Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Activities

机译：为项目工期和完成中的变化建模：NASA的探索飞行测试1（EFT-1）活动的调度动力学

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摘要

In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA's Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled simultaneous change in percent complete and estimated duration for a given project as they were included in monthly reports over time. In short, we utilized latent change score mixture modeling to extract the attractor dynamics within the scheduling data. We found three primarily patterns: an attractor at low duration, low percent complete; a saddle that was attractive toward full completion and repelled duration away from five months, and an attractor at full completion and high duration. We replicated these three patterns using multilevel modeling. Then, we examined how task dependencies, in terms of the number of predecessors and successors, affected the probability of exhibiting a given pattern over time. Thus, we offer a flexible method for understanding the patterns that can characterize scheduling dynamics as well as other dynamical systems. Several recommendations for future directions are discussed.
机译：在复杂的工作领域和组织中，了解调度动态可以确保达到目标并减轻延迟。在当前的论文中，我们研究了NASA探索飞行测试1（EFT-1）活动的调度动态。对于此检查，我们专门为给定项目的完成和估计工期百分比的同时变化建模，因为它们随时间包含在月度报告中。简而言之，我们利用潜在变化分数混合模型在调度数据中提取吸引子动力学。我们发现了三种主要模式：持续时间短，完成率低的吸引子；一个对完全完成具有吸引力的马鞍，并且排斥了五个月的时间，而在完全完成且持续时间高的吸引子。我们使用多级建模复制了这三种模式。然后，我们检查了任务的依存关系，如何根据前任和后继的数量来影响随时间推移展现给定模式的可能性。因此，我们提供了一种灵活的方法来理解可表征调度动态以及其他动态系统的模式。讨论了一些对未来方向的建议。

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