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首页> 外文期刊>Nonlinear dynamics, psychology and life sciences >The Performance-Variability Paradox, Financial Decision Making, and the Curious Case of Negative Hurst Exponents
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The Performance-Variability Paradox, Financial Decision Making, and the Curious Case of Negative Hurst Exponents

机译：绩效-变量悖论，财务决策和负赫斯特指数的奇怪案例

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This study examined the relationship between performance variability and actual performance of financial decision makers who were working under experimental conditions of increasing workload and fatigue. The rescaled range statistic, also known as the Hurst exponent (H) was used as an index of variability. Although H is defined as having a range between 0 and 1, 45％ of the 172 time series generated by undergraduates were negative. Participants in the study chose the optimum investment out of sets of 3 to 5 options that were presented a series of 350 displays. The sets of options varied in both the complexity of the options and number of options under simultaneous consideration. One experimental condition required participants to make their choices within 15 sec, and the other condition required them to choose within 7.5 sec. Results showed that (a) negative H was possible and not a result of psychometric error; (b) negative H was associated with negative autocorrelations in a time series. (c) H was the best predictor of performance of the variables studied; (d) three other significant predictors were scores on an anagrams test and ratings of physical demands and performance demands; (e) persistence as evidenced by the autocorrelations was associated with ratings of greater time pressure. It was concluded, furthermore, that persistence and overall performance were correlated, that "healthy" variability only exists within a limited range, and other individual differences related to ability and resistance to stress or fatigue are also involved in the prediction of performance.
机译：这项研究研究了在工作量增加和疲劳的实验条件下工作的财务决策者的绩效差异与实际绩效之间的关系。重新定标的范围统计量（也称为Hurst指数（H））用作变异性指标。尽管H的定义范围是0到1，但由本科生产生的172个时间序列中有45％是负数。研究参与者从3到5个选项中选择了最佳的投资，这些选项由350个显示系列组成。选项集在选项的复杂性和同时考虑的选项数量上都各不相同。一种实验条件要求参与者在15秒内做出选择，而另一种条件要求参与者在7.5秒内做出选择。结果表明：（a）负H是可能的，而不是心理测量误差的结果； （b）负H与时间序列中的负自相关相关。 （c）H是所研究变量表现的最佳预测指标； （d）其他三个重要的预测指标是字谜测试的得分以及身体需求和表现需求的等级； （e）自相关性证明的持久性与更大的时间压力等级相关。此外，得出的结论是，持久性和总体表现是相关的，“健康”变异仅存在于有限的范围内，并且与能力和对压力或疲劳的抵抗力有关的其他个体差异也参与了表现预测。

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