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首页> 外文期刊>Nonlinear dynamics, psychology and life sciences >Intention to Use Condom, Cusp Modeling, and Evaluation of an HIV Prevention Intervention Trial
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Intention to Use Condom, Cusp Modeling, and Evaluation of an HIV Prevention Intervention Trial

机译：使用避孕套的意图，尖锐的模型以及艾滋病毒预防干预试验的评估

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Adolescents are at particularly high risk to acquire HIV infection; increasing the likelihood of condom use is an effective measure to reduce the risk of such infections. Challenges in assessing actual condom use behavior among early adolescents render the precursor measure, intention to use condoms, an appealing alternative. While analyzing data from a randomized controlled trial to evaluate a theory-based intervention program to promote condom use among early adolescents, we observed a modest effect with regard to condom use intention when the linear analytical approach was used. If intention, as a measure of the readiness to perform a behavior, also contains a nonlinear discrete component, it would be more appropriately modeled using a nonlinear approach. In this study, data from a randomized controlled trial (N=1360) were analyzed using the cusp catastrophe method with HIV knowledge and condom skills as the asymmetry variables and condom use self-efficacy as the bifurcation variables. Findings from concurrent and longitudinal modeling analyses indicated a much better fit of the cusp model (R~2 = 0.85); AIC and BIC were one-fourth that of than the linear (R~2 ＜ 0.10) or the logistic model (R~2 ＜ 0.15). Receipt of the intervention as an asymmetry variable was significantly predicted condom use intention but did not as a bifurcation variable. In conclusion, adolescent intentions to use a condom contain both a continuous process and a discrete process and can better be modeled with cusp catastrophe methods. A much greater program effect is likely from the same prevention intervention if additional measures are taken to foster sudden changes in condom intention.
机译：青少年感染艾滋病毒的风险特别高；增加使用安全套的可能性是减少此类感染风险的有效措施。在评估青少年早期实际使用安全套行为方面面临的挑战使得采取先驱措施，使用安全套的意图成为有吸引力的选择。在分析来自随机对照试验的数据以评估基于理论的干预方案以促进青少年早期使用避孕套时，我们观察到使用线性分析方法时避孕套使用意图的适度影响。如果意图（作为执行行为的准备程度的度量）也包含非线性离散成分，则可以使用非线性方法更适当地对其建模。在这项研究中，使用尖峰突变方法以HIV知识和避孕套技能为不对称变量，以避孕套使用自我效能为分叉变量，对一项随机对照试验（N = 1360）的数据进行了分析。并发和纵向建模分析的结果表明，尖点模型的拟合度更好（R〜2 = 0.85）。 AIC和BIC是线性模型（R〜2 ＜0.10）或逻辑模型（R〜2 ＜0.15）的四分之一。接受干预作为不对称变量可以显着预测避孕套的使用意图，但不能作为分歧变量。总之，青春期使用避孕套的意图既包含连续过程，也包含离散过程，并且可以使用尖点突变方法更好地建模。如果采取其他措施促进避孕套用意的突然变化，则通过相同的预防干预措施可能会产生更大的计划效果。

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