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Is Research Publication a Catastrophic Phenomenon Among Medical Faculty?

机译：研究出版物在医学系中是否是灾难性的现象？

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摘要

Studies seeking to predict publication rates among faculty have found contradictory results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether short-or long-term research publications among family medicine faculty were better accounted for using cusp catastrophe modeling (CCM) rather than linear modeling. This secondary analysis of annual research publications used data collected from family medicine faculty in a university department. To predict the number of research publications, two service variables - national service and administrative responsibility - were used. There were three bifurcation variables: Scholarly Activity, Professional Status, and "proportion of studies as principal investigator". Research publications at two and five years were modeled using CCM as well as two linear models. Based upon the amount of variance explained, while linear models accounted for more variance in publications at 5-year intervals, CCM was superior at explaining publications for all three bifurcation variables at 2-year intervals. Entering all of the bifurcation variables into the models found that CCM explained more of the 2-year publication variance with Scholarly Activity and national service as significant predictors. In conclusion, short-term career planning needs to consider its irregular cusp behavior and to minimize the possible impact of bifurcation factors.
机译：试图预测教师发表率的研究发现了相互矛盾的结果。这项研究的目的是确定使用尖角突变模型（CCM）而不是线性模型可以更好地说明家庭医学系中短期或长期的研究出版物。对年度研究出版物的二次分析使用了从大学系家庭医学系收集的数据。为了预测研究出版物的数量，使用了两个服务变量-国家服务和行政责任。分三个变量：学术活动，专业地位和“作为主要研究者的研究比例”。使用CCM和两个线性模型对两年和五年的研究出版物进行了建模。根据所解释的方差量，虽然线性模型在5年间隔中占出版物的更多差异，但CCM在2年间隔中对所有三个分叉变量的出版物解释方面都比较出色。将所有分叉变量输入模型，发现CCM用学术活动和国民服务作为重要的预测因素解释了两年出版物的更多差异。总之，短期职业规划需要考虑其不规则的尖角行为，并最大程度地减少分叉因素的可能影响。

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