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首页> 外文期刊>Nonlinear dynamics, psychology and life sciences >Fractal Meta-analysis and 'Causality' Embedded in Complexity: Advanced Understanding of Disease Etiology
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Fractal Meta-analysis and 'Causality' Embedded in Complexity: Advanced Understanding of Disease Etiology

机译:分形荟萃分析和复杂性中的“因果关系”:对疾病病因学的高级理解

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Epidemiologists have gradually come to realize that repeated testing of 'causal' hypotheses normally results in inconsistent outcomes. Contradictory results pop up often enough to arouse suspicion that central epidemiological paradigms may be invalid. In this paper, we introduce complexity to explain inconsistency. Linear models produce inconsistency simply because they are not sufficiently rooted in the complex nature of living things. We design a meta-analysis consisting of (a) fractal investigation, used in this paper to reveal the possibly fractal nature of ordered series of relative risks (RR) and their possible Self-Organized Criticality (SOC); (b) disclosure of complexity-bound associations (DCBA) analysis which is used to disclose law-like and chaos-like associa-tions of exposure and risk of disease within the series. We use (a) and (b) to reanalyze three published meta-studies, one of which investigates the possible association of oral contraceptives and female breast cancer. We demonstrate that the OR-series of the latter is fractal and in a state of SOC and conclude, contrary to the authors of the original meta-study, that there is no law-like association of oral contraceptives and breast cancer in this series. We achieve similar results for the other two meta-studies, results that are highly relevant for the clinical recommendations given by the authors.
机译:流行病学家逐渐意识到,对“因果”假设的重复检验通常会导致结果不一致。经常出现矛盾的结果,足以引起人们怀疑中央流行病学范式可能是无效的。在本文中,我们介绍了复杂性以解释不一致。线性模型之所以产生不一致,仅仅是因为它们不足以扎根于生物的复杂本质。我们设计了一个荟萃分析,包括:(a)分形研究,用于揭示有序相对风险序列(RR)的可能分形性质及其可能的自组织临界度(SOC); (b)披露复杂性关联(DCBA)分析,该分析用于披露系列中暴露和疾病风险的类似法律和类似混乱的关联。我们使用(a)和(b)重新分析了三篇已发表的荟萃研究,其中一项研究了口服避孕药与女性乳腺癌的可能联系。我们证明后者的OR系列是分形的,并且处于SOC状态,并得出结论,与最初的荟萃研究的作者相反,该系列中没有口服避孕药和乳腺癌的类似法律的关联。我们在其他两个荟萃研究中取得了相似的结果,这些结果与作者提出的临床建议高度相关。

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