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首页> 外文期刊>The North American journal of economics and finance >Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?
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Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?

机译：越南：下一只亚洲虎？

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摘要

We investigate the growth experience of Vietnam, the country which has been getting recent attention as being the next emerging giant. First, we present an aggregate level investigation of Vietnam's economic growth experience, since the inauguration of reform in 1986 known as Doi Moi. We focus on a top-down approach that performs growth and level accounting exercises. These decompositions offer the possibility to track the economic progress of Vietnam and to formulate policy accordingly depending on where the gaps originate from. Second, we build a two-sector general equilibrium model, investigating the secular decline in agricultural employment. Despite the notable structural changes over the past thirty years, agriculture still has a substantial weight in the Vietnamese economy. We conduct a quantitative analysis using a theoretical framework, with an emphasis on the counterfactual outcomes of inheriting Chinese sectoral productivity growth rates, where China is recognized as the paragon emerging economy. The main findings are: (i) Vietnam has grown impressively since 1986, but is still a relatively poor country in absolute terms; (ii) Vietnam must decrease its reliance on factor accumulation as its source of growth and increase its technological capabilities; (iii) economic policies should equally target both agricultural and nonagricultural sectors to increase sectoral productivity growth rates in Vietnam.
机译：我们调查了越南的增长经验，越南已成为下一个新兴大国，最近受到了关注。首先，从1986年改革开始以来，我们对越南的经济增长经验进行了总体调查。我们专注于执行增长和级别会计练习的自上而下的方法。这些分解为跟踪越南的经济发展并根据差距的来源提供了相应的制定政策的可能性。其次，我们建立了一个两部门的一般均衡模型，以调查农业就业的长期下降。尽管过去三十年来结构发生了显着变化，但农业在越南经济中仍然占有重要地位。我们使用理论框架进行定量分析，重点是继承中国部门生产率增长率所带来的反事实结果，在中国，中国被视为典范的新兴经济体。主要发现是：（i）越南自1986年以来取得了令人瞩目的增长，但就绝对值而言仍然是一个相对贫穷的国家； ii越南必须减少对要素积累的依赖，以此作为增长的来源，并提高其技术能力； （iii）经济政策应同样针对农业和非农业部门，以提高越南的部门生产率增长率。

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