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首页> 外文期刊>The North American journal of economics and finance >Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis
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Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis

机译：股市真的造成失业吗？越野分析

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摘要

This study examines the relationship between the stock market and unemployment in 30 advanced and 11 developing and emerging countries. The results show that the unemployment rate and stock prices are cointegrated in all country groups; further, the causality between stock prices and unemployment appears in all country groups. Specifically, I found a particularly strong and one-way causal direction from stock prices to the unemployment rate in G7 countries. There is a strong bilateral causal relationship between stock prices and unemployment for other advanced countries. However, in the 11 developing and emerging countries, the causality test results indicate a strong Granger causality from unemployment to stock prices. The results for developing and emerging countries suggest that the unemployment rate can help forecast stock prices, but not vice versa. These findings complement existing studies and deliver useful implications for investors and policymakers, and suggest some new lines for future research.
机译：这项研究考察了30个先进国家和11个发展中国家和新兴国家股票市场与失业之间的关系。结果表明，所有国家/地区的失业率和股票价格都是协整的。此外，股票价格与失业之间的因果关系出现在所有国家组中。具体来说，我发现七国集团（G7）国家中从股票价格到失业率的因果关系特别强。在其他发达国家，股票价格与失业之间存在很强的双边因果关系。但是，在11个发展中国家和新兴国家中，因果关系检验结果表明，从失业到股票价格，格兰杰因果关系很强。发展中国家和新兴国家的调查结果表明，失业率可以帮助预测股票价格，反之则不能。这些发现补充了现有研究，并为投资者和决策者提供了有益的启示，并为未来的研究提出了一些新思路。

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