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首页> 外文期刊>The North American journal of economics and finance >International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors
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International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors

机译：墨西哥各州商业周期的国际同步：解释因素

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摘要

The aim of this paper is to identify the explaining factors of the synchronization of the business cycles of the Mexican states and those of the US economy. The cycle indicator is obtained by de trending the series of total formal employment (Mexican states) and nonfarm employment and industrial production (US). In general, our panel data model estimations suggest the existence of spatial autocorrelation and significant time-period fixed effects. Also, the estimates indicate a significant and positive effect of the ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product (GDP), which may be supplementing the impact of international trade (driven by the most internationally integrated states) and a negative effect of the ratio of remittances to GDP (driven by less integrated states). Finally, the evidence suggests that more similar productive structures yield more synchronized business cycles.
机译：本文旨在确定墨西哥各州与美国经济周期同步的解释因素。周期指标是通过对全部正式就业（墨西哥州）和非农就业与工业生产（美国）的序列进行去趋势获得的。通常，我们的面板数据模型估计表明存在空间自相关和显着的时间周期固定效应。此外，估计数表明，外国直接投资与国内生产总值的比率产生了显着的积极影响，这可能补充了国际贸易的影响（由国际最一体化的国家推动）和该比率的消极影响对国内生产总值的汇款（由一体化程度较低的国家驱动）。最后，证据表明，更多类似的生产结构会产生更同步的业务周期。

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