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首页> 外文期刊>The North American journal of economics and finance >The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil
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The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil

机译：汇率波动对美国和巴西之间商品贸易的影响

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As Brazil continues its emergence as a major world economy, it has enjoyed both increased trade and capital inflow-fueled currency appreciations. But while it is often thought that exchange-rate volatility hurts trade, the economic literature has found that this is not always true. This study examines bilateral export and import flows between the United States and Brazil from 1971 to 2010, using cointegration analysis to estimate the effects of this risk. This study arrives at three main conclusions. First, while the majority of industries are not affected by volatility in the long run, an unexpectedly large share of those that are affected responds positively to increased risk. Second, sensitivity to risk differs markedly by industry sector: Brazilian exports of agricultural products are particularly harmed, while U.S. machinery imports are not impacted at all. Finally, products with small trade shares more likely to respond to increased uncertainty than are major exporters.
机译：随着巴西继续成为世界主要经济体，巴西的贸易和资本流入推动了货币升值。但是，尽管人们通常认为汇率波动会损害贸易，但经济文献发现，情况并非总是如此。这项研究调查了1971年至2010年美国和巴西之间的双边进出口流量，并使用协整分析来估计这种风险的影响。这项研究得出三个主要结论。首先，尽管大多数行业从长远来看不会受到波动的影响，但受影响的行业中出乎意料的很大一部分对增加的风险做出了积极的响应。第二，对风险的敏感性因行业而异：巴西农产品的出口受到特别的损害，而美国的机械进口根本没有受到影响。最后，与主要出口国相比，贸易份额较小的产品更有可能对不确定性做出响应。

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