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首页> 外文期刊>Nuclear Engineering and Design >Statistical modelling of graphite brick weight loss in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors
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Statistical modelling of graphite brick weight loss in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors

机译：先进气冷堆中石墨砖失重的统计模型

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Demonstrating the physical integrity of graphite cores in UK Advanced Gas Cooled Nuclear Reactors operated by EDF Energy (formerly British Energy) is essential to the demonstration of their continued safe operation. The cores contain around 3000 graphite bricks which are subject to cracking and weight loss due to oxidation. If too much graphite is lost by oxidation the core will cease to act as an efficient moderator for neutrons. Periodic inspections are made of parts of the core to provide information on the state of a sample of the bricks. Statistical models are routinely used to help understand the evolution of brick cracking in the reactors. In this paper details are given of the use of mixed effects statistical models for weight loss to predict what will be seen at reactor inspections. By making blind predictions of core behaviour and then comparing these with observations from inspections, the predictive performance of the models has been quantified and they are then used to produce long-term forecasts of core behaviour. A key feature of the models is the need to represent system variability at different scales. Being able to forecast core behaviour enables reactor lifetimes to be estimated which has major economic implications.
机译：证明由EDF Energy（以前称为British Energy）运营的英国先进气冷核反应堆中石墨核的物理完整性对于证明其持续安全运行至关重要。核心包含约3000块石墨砖，这些砖容易因氧化而开裂和失重。如果过多的石墨因氧化而损失，则核将不再充当中子的有效减速剂。定期检查核心部分，以提供有关砖块样品状态的信息。通常使用统计模型来帮助了解反应堆中砖裂的发展。本文详细介绍了使用混合效应统计模型来减轻重量，以预测在反应堆检查中会看到的情况。通过对核心行为进行盲目预测，然后将其与检查结果进行比较，可以对模型的预测性能进行量化，然后将其用于对核心行为进行长期预测。模型的一个关键特征是需要代表不同规模的系统可变性。能够预测堆芯行为可以估算反应堆的使用寿命，这对经济有重大影响。

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