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Application of a Discretized Phase-Space Approach to the Analysis of Monte Carlo Uncertainties

机译：离散相空间方法在蒙特卡洛不确定度分析中的应用

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摘要

In the study of Monte Carlo statistical uncertainties for iterated-fission-source calculations, an important distinction is made between the real and the apparent variances. The former is the actual variance of a Monte Carlo calculation result, while the latter is an estimate of the former obtained using the results of the fission generations in the formula for uncorrelated random variates. For years it has been known that the apparent variance is a biased estimate of the real variance, and the reason for the bias has been understood. More recently, several authors have noted various interesting phenomena regarding the apparent and the real variances and the relationships among them. Some of these are an increase in the apparent variance near surfaces with reflecting boundary conditions, a nonuniform spatial distribution of the ratio of the apparent-to-real variance, the dependence of this ratio on the size of the region over which the result is tallied, and a rate of convergence of the real variance that is less than the inverse of the number of neutron histories run. This paper discusses a theoretical description of the Monte Carlo process using a discretized phase-space and then uses it to explain the causes of these phenomena.
机译：在对迭代裂变源计算的蒙特卡洛统计不确定性的研究中，真实和视差之间存在重要区别。前者是蒙特卡洛计算结果的实际方差，而后者是使用不相关随机变量的公式中裂变生成结果获得的前者的估计。多年来，已经知道表观方差是实际方差的偏差估计，并且已经理解了偏差的原因。最近，几位作者注意到了关于表观和实际方差以及它们之间的关系的各种有趣现象。其中一些是具有反射边界条件的表面附近的表观方差的增加，表观与实际方差之比的不均匀空间分布，该比值与计算结果的区域的大小有关，并且实际方差的收敛速度小于运行中子历史记录数量的倒数。本文讨论了使用离散相空间的蒙特卡洛过程的理论描述，然后用它来解释这些现象的原因。

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  • 来源
    《Nuclear science and engineering》 |2017年第1期|174-183|共10页
  • 作者

    Sutton Thomas M.;

  • 作者单位

    Bechtel Marine Prop Corp, Knolls Atom Power Lab, POB 1072, Schenectady, NY 12301 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Monte Carlo; statistical uncertainty; variance;

    机译：蒙特卡洛;统计不确定性;方差;

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