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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean & coastal management >Modelling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in the north coast of Sao Paulo, Brazil
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Modelling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in the north coast of Sao Paulo, Brazil

机译：对巴西圣保罗北海岸的城市增长和土地利用变化的空间动力学进行建模

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摘要

Spatial modelling is a resourceful approach largely used in land use planning and occupation dynamics. The use of land change and urban growth simulations are indispensable for supporting the development and implementation of urban planning policies. This paper develops potential scenarios of land use change (status-quo and law enforcement) and urban occupation in the north coast of Sao Paulo using spatial dynamics modelling. Cellular automata-based modelling and EGO Dynamic simulations were used to produce past and future scenarios of land use occupation and growth expansion. These scenarios are compared between them and with vulnerability maps to identify areas at risk. The outcomes show that the north coast of Sao Paulo is highly vulnerable to expansion of irregular occupations when regulations are not enforced. Forest areas are the first areas to be suppressed by an unsystematic urban development. The extent to which people are exposed to environmental and climatic changes is influenced by urban infrastructure developments and decision making regulations. Findings of this work can guide future planning decisions on such as the revision of the ecological-economic zoning and local land use plans. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：空间建模是一种资源丰富的方法，主要用于土地利用规划和占用动态。土地变化和城市增长模拟的使用对于支持城市规划政策的制定和实施是必不可少的。本文利用空间动力学模型，开发了圣保罗北海岸土地利用变化（现状和执法）和城市占领的潜在情景。基于元胞自动机的建模和EGO动态模拟用于产生过去和将来的土地利用占领和增长情景。将这些方案与它们之间以及漏洞图进行比较，以识别有风险的区域。结果表明，在不执行法规的情况下，圣保罗北海岸极易受到非正规职业扩张的影响。森林地区是第一个受到系统性城市发展抑制的地区。人们受到环境和气候变化影响的程度受城市基础设施发展和决策法规的影响。这项工作的发现可以指导未来的规划决策，例如修订生态经济区划和当地土地使用计划。 （C）2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2015年第5期|147-157|共11页
  • 作者

    Nakao Inouye Carlos Eduardo; de Sousa Wilson Cabral Jr.; de Freitas Debora M.; Simoes Eliane;

  • 作者单位

    Technol Inst Aeronaut, Engn Div Infrastruct, Dept Water & Environm Sanitat, Pca Mal Eduardo Gomes, BR-12228900 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil;

    Technol Inst Aeronaut, Engn Div Infrastruct, Dept Water & Environm Sanitat, Pca Mal Eduardo Gomes, BR-12228900 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil;

    Technol Inst Aeronaut, Engn Div Infrastruct, Dept Water & Environm Sanitat, Pca Mal Eduardo Gomes, BR-12228900 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil|Univ Wollongong, Australian Natl Ctr Ocean Resources & Secur, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia;

    Technol Inst Aeronaut, Engn Div Infrastruct, Dept Water & Environm Sanitat, Pca Mal Eduardo Gomes, BR-12228900 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Coastal settlements; Vulnerability; Climate change; Cellular automata-based modelling;

    机译：沿海居民区;脆弱性;气候变化;基于元胞自动机的建模;

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