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Mathematical modeling of coastal marine environments using observational data for coastal management

机译：使用观测数据进行沿海管理的沿海海洋环境数学建模

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Coastal development affects human life and economic activity. Given a necessity to develop coastal areas, there is a need for a method by which to understand and quantitatively assess and predict changes to coastal marine environments. In this paper, we propose a mathematical modeling for coastal marine environments using observational data. In particular, we establish probabilistic graphical model based on the data-driven statistical model for Saemangeum coast of Korea, where land reclamation work has been taking place. The derived model consists of latent and observation variables and their causal relationships. Ocean currents occurred by water exchange appear to be the key factor influencing the coastal marine environments in the artificial lake of Saemangeum coast. Hence, coastal water quality in the coastal management is the major concern by stakeholders. Using the proposed model we were able to compute the followings to demonstrate the usage of our proposed model: First, if the lake were to be entirely cut off from sea water exchange (which takes place through sluice gates in the sea dyke to the open sea), coastal water quality may deteriorated to approximately 37.5% of its current quality. Secondly, in order to maintain a minimum acceptable coastal water quality in the artificial lake, permitting its use in industrial supply and agriculture, currents of about 0.6 m/s are required for sea water exchange. This approach will assist in coastal management by supporting decision-making, policy planning, and the establishment of strategies for sustainable coastal development and conservation of coastal marine environments. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：沿海发展影响人类生活和经济活动。鉴于必须发展沿海地区，需要一种方法来理解，定量评估和预测沿海海洋环境的变化。在本文中，我们建议使用观测数据对沿海海洋环境进行数学建模。特别是，我们基于数据驱动的统计数据模型建立了韩国Saemangeum海岸开垦工作的概率图形模型。导出的模型由潜在变量和观察变量及其因果关系组成。通过水交换产生的洋流似乎是影响Saemangeum海岸人工湖中沿海海洋环境的关键因素。因此，沿海管理中的沿海水质是利益相关者的主要关注点。使用提出的模型，我们能够计算出以下内容，以证明我们提出的模型的用法：首先，如果要从海水交换中完全切断湖泊（这是通过海堤中的闸门到公海进行的） ），沿海水质可能会恶化到目前水质的37.5％。其次，为了在人造湖中维持最低的可接受的沿海水质，允许其在工业供应和农业中使用，海水交换需要约0.6 m / s的水流。这种方法将通过支持决策，政策规划以及制定可持续沿海发展和保护沿海海洋环境的战略来协助沿海管理。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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