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Scenarios as a tool for supporting policy-making for the Wadden Sea

机译：方案作为支持瓦登海政策制定的工具

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摘要

The Wadden Sea region along the Dutch coast is currently an area undergoing a turning point in the context of both environmental change and economic growth and development, which will inevitably result in pivotal alterations of its natural systems. In this work, we apply scenarios as a tool to explore possible futures of both environmental conditions and use-regimes in this region. Implications of divergent world-views about the Wadden Sea environment and its development potential are evaluated with this methodology to find common ground among stake-holders regarding management trajectories and the possible environmental conditions that may result from prospective policy options. Particular considerations of how to generate and evaluate scenarios are identified and applied to reveal how current environmental tensions regarding development, resource exploitation, and conservation in the Wadden Sea region can be useful to frame feasible policy prescriptions and mitigate conflict among user-groups. Two scenarios, "Nature First" and "Food and Energy" were constructed based on present-day attitudes and perceptions of how this region should be managed, given its particular status as a unique and sensitive ecosystem that also harbors abundant resources and industrial growth capacity. We show that by looking ahead into potential outcomes of current trends in development efforts, these scenarios can effectively inform the decision-making processes by revealing the potential consequences, both beneficial and adverse, that could result from the variety of development goals currently being considered for the Wadden Sea region. We show that this heavily-utilized coastal zone requires a strategic long-term integrated vision that includes the flexibility to accommodate unexpected circumstances that result from short-term management decisions.
机译：在环境变化以及经济增长和发展的背景下，荷兰沿海的瓦登海地区目前是一个转折点，这将不可避免地导致其自然系统的关键性变化。在这项工作中，我们将情景作为工具来探索该地区环境条件和使用制度的未来。使用此方法评估了有关瓦登海环境及其发展潜力的不同世界观的含义，从而在利益相关者之间找到有关管理轨迹和未来政策选择可能导致的环境条件的共识。确定并应用了有关如何生成和评估方案的特殊考虑，以揭示瓦登海地区当前有关开发，资源开发和保护的环境紧张状况如何有助于制定可行的政策规定并减轻用户群体之间的冲突。考虑到该地区作为独特而敏感的生态系统的特殊地位，同时也蕴藏着丰富的资源和工业增长能力，基于当前的态度和对该区域应如何管理的看法，构建了“自然至上”和“食品与能源”这两种方案。我们表明，通过展望当前发展努力趋势的潜在结果，这些场景可以通过揭示当前正在考虑的各种发展目标可能带来的有利和不利后果，从而有效地为决策过程提供信息瓦登海地区。我们表明，这个被大量利用的沿海地区需要具有战略性的长期综合愿景，其中包括应对短期管理决策所导致的意外情况的灵活性。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2012年第11期|189-200|共12页
  • 作者

    Frederick G. Wortelboer; Baerbel G. Bischof;

  • 作者单位

    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, 4600 Rickenbacker Cswy, Miami, FL 33149, USA;

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