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Cyclone risk model and assessment for East Asian container ports

机译：东亚集装箱港口的飓风风险模型与评估

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摘要

A cyclone risk model for container ports is developed with a holistic approach on assessing the physical vulnerability of port infrastructure and goods to withstand cyclone events. The risk evaluation considers the structural survivability of the operation components at berth fronts, storage areas and internal transport system within a typical container terminal when subjected to the impact of cyclone wind and storm surge. We present the potential cyclone risks and economic losses for the top 14 East Asian container ports for their respective 100 year return period cyclone wind and storm surge events. The results suggest that many of the container ports are potentially faced with high economic losses: on average, 0.05 billion USD and up to 0.4 billion USD if widespread flooding occurs. The ports located in the Great Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are subject to the highest risks from both wind and storm surge perils. The maximum 100-year return period loss for these two port clusters can reach up to USD 0.1-0.2 billion under cyclone wind impact and USD 1.0-2.0 billion under storm surge impact. This calls for more effective port planning for cyclone preparedness and emergency response by port authorities and operators.
机译：针对集装箱港口的旋风风险模型，采用整体方法来评估港口基础设施和货物抵御旋风事件的物理脆弱性。风险评估考虑了遭受飓风和风暴潮影响时，典型集装箱码头内泊位前沿，存储区和内部运输系统中操作组件的结构生存能力。我们介绍了东亚前14个集装箱港口在其各自的100年回归期飓风和风暴潮事件中的潜在旋风风险和经济损失。结果表明，许多集装箱港口都可能面临很高的经济损失：平均而言，将造成5亿美元的损失，如果发生大面积洪灾，则可能高达4亿美元。大珠江三角洲和长江三角洲的港口遭受风浪和风暴潮危害的风险最高。在飓风影响下，这两个港口群的最大100年回报期损失可能高达1.2亿美元，在风暴潮影响下，则高达10-20亿美元。这就要求港口当局和运营商进行更有效的港口计划，以进行旋风准备和应急响应。

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