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Development of a coastal vulnerability index using analytical hierarchy process and application to Ravenna province (Italy)

机译：使用层次分析法开发沿海脆弱性指数并将其应用于拉文纳省（意大利）

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摘要

The assessment of coastal vulnerability to natural hazards is a major concern in coastal areas worldwide, particularly in the context of climate change and increased coastal development. In this work an index of physical vulnerability to sea level rise and marine floods was designed and applied over the coast of the Ravenna Province (Italy), a low-lying coastal area historically known as being susceptible to coastal flooding and erosion. The index is intended to be at the same time scientifically sound and easy to apply, so it is composed of five relevant variables (elevation, dunes, artificial protection structures, shoreline change rates, and land cover) that were weighted by using a multi-criteria decision making approach, namely the analytical hierarchy process. The weightings were assigned by experts familiar with coastal processes in the area, and all with background in environmental science. This enabled a transparent approach on integrating established expert knowledge to assign the relative importance of the variables in defining vulnerability scores. The final vulnerability score for each segment along the investigated coast was calculated by applying the weighted sum of all variables. For verification purposes, the obtained vulnerability ranking was compared to existing coastal flood hazard maps developed by regional authorities in the framework of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), and to real inundation events generated by historical storms. The integration of this framework into geographical information systems resulted in informative maps, useful to a variety of end-users such as coastal managers and decision makers.
机译：沿海地区对自然灾害的脆弱性评估是全世界沿海地区的一个主要问题，特别是在气候变化和沿海地区发展的背景下。在这项工作中，设计并应用了拉文纳省（意大利）沿海地区对海平面上升和海洋洪水的物理脆弱性指标，该地区历史上被称为易受沿海洪水和侵蚀的低洼沿海地区。该指数旨在在科学上同时合理且易于使用，因此它由五个相关变量（海拔，沙丘，人工保护结构，海岸线变化率和土地覆盖率）组成，这些变量通过使用多个标准决策方法，即层次分析法。权重由熟悉该地区沿海过程以及环境科学背景的专家分配。这样就可以采用一种透明的方法来集成已建立的专家知识，以分配变量在定义漏洞评分时的相对重要性。通过应用所有变量的加权总和，可以计算出沿调查海岸每个部分的最终脆弱性得分。为了进行验证，将获得的脆弱性等级与区域当局在欧盟洪水指令（2007/60 / EC）框架下开发的现有沿海洪灾灾害地图进行了比较，并与历史风暴产生的真实洪水事件进行了比较。将该框架整合到地理信息系统中，生成了信息地图，对沿海管理者和决策者等各种最终用户有用。

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