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Environmental and economic impacts of rising sea levels: A case study in Kuwait's coastal zone

机译：海平面上升的环境和经济影响 - 以科威特沿海地区为例

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摘要

From an environmental and economic perspective, Kuwait?s coastal zone is highly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). This paper aims to assess SLR?s impact on Kuwait?s coastal zone at both the local and national level. The economic and environmental assessments focused on inundation of land, the population at risk, residential sector losses, and affected infrastructure under four SLR scenarios (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m sea rise). Several spatial datasets comprising a digital elevation model, satellite images, and land use map were processed using ArcGIS 10. In addition, the rate of beach erosion from SLR was calculated by applying the Bruun rule. The results revealed that the governorates expected to be the most severely impacted were Hawalli and Kuwait Capital, in terms of both the number of affected people and the residential sector?s economic losses. Although the Ahmadi governorate would experience a lower risk of inundation, its coastal area is home to the oil industry, including refineries, harbors, and several power and desalination plants. On a national scale, applying the Bruun rule revealed that the beaches investigated would be eroded entirely by a 1 m increase in sea level. Furthermore, if sea levels rose from 0.5 m to 2 m, 1.4%?4.8% of Kuwait?s coastal zone would be inundated, forcing 0.28%?1% of residents to abandon their homes, causing residential losses of $3,463 to $11,142 million. In the same scenarios, the transportation sector would suffer damage to around 1.5%?5% of its road network. The impact of SLR would also extend to the natural environment of Kuwait Bay and caused damage to its ecosystems. The predicted consequences of SLR would vary from one area to another based on natural barriers, shoreline type, coastal structures, and the type of urban development. Therefore, national and local governments? response should consider the long-term consequences of SLR and initiate a proactive adaptation strategy.
机译：从环境和经济的角度来看，科威特？S沿海地区非常易受海平面上升（SLR）。本文旨在评估对本地和国家一级的科威特沿海地区的SLR的影响。重点是在四个单反情景下淹没土地，风险，住宅行业损失和受影响基础设施的经济和环境评估（0.5,1,1,1.5和2米上升）。使用ArcGIS 10处理包括数字高度模型，卫星图像和土地使用图的几个空间数据集10.此外，通过应用Bruun规则计算SLR的海滩侵蚀速率。结果表明，省长预计是哈瓦利和科威特资本的最严重影响，就受影响的人和居住部门的经济损失而言。虽然Ahmadi省将经历较低的淹没风险，但其沿海地区是石油工业的家园，包括炼油厂，港口和几个电力和海水淡化厂。在全国范围内，申请布鲁尼统治透露，调查的海滩将完全侵蚀海平面1米。此外，如果海平面从0.5米到2米上升，1.4％？4.8％的科威特沿海地区将被淹没，强迫0.28％？1％的居民放弃房屋，造成3,463美元的住宅损失为11.46亿美元至111.42亿美元。在同一情景中，运输部门将遭受损害约1.5％？5％的道路网络。 SLR的影响也将延伸到科威特湾的自然环境，对其生态系统造成损害。根据天然障碍，海岸线型，沿海地组和城市发展类型，SLR的预测后果将不同于一个区域到另一个区域。因此，国家和地方政府？响应应考虑SLR的长期后果，并启动主动适应策略。

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