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An informed thought experiment exploring the potential for a paradigm shift in aquatic food production

机译：一个知情思想实验，探索水生食品生产范式转变的潜力

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摘要

The Neolithic Revolution began approximately 10,000 years ago and is characterized by the ultimate, nearly complete transition from hunting and gathering to agricultural food production on land. The Neolithic Revolution is thought to have been catalyzed by a combination of local population pressure, cultural diffusion, property rights and climate change. We undertake a thought experiment that examines trends in these key hypothesized catalysts of the Neolithic Revolution and patterns of today to explore whether society could be on a path towards another paradigm shift in food production: away from hunting of wild fish towards a transition to mostly fish farming. We find similar environmental and cultural pressures have driven the rapid rise of aquaculture, during a period that has now been coined the Blue Revolution, providing impetus for such a transition in coming decades to centuries (as opposed to millennia). However, we also highlight the interacting and often mutually reinforcing impacts of 1) technological and scientific advancements, 2) environmental awareness and collective action and 3) globalization and trade influencing the trajectory and momentum of the Blue Revolution from patterns and processes of the Neolithic Revolution. We present two qualitative narratives that broadly fall within two future trajectories of seafood production: 1) a ubiquitous aquaculture transition and 2) commercial aquaculture and fisheries coexistence. Each narrative contains two sub-narratives based on differing management and regulatory strategies for aquaculture and fisheries. This scenarios approach aims to encourage logical, forward thinking, and innovative solutions to complex systems? dynamics. Scenario-based thought experiments are useful to explore large scale questions, increase the accessibility to a wider readership, and ideally catalyze discussion around proactive governance mechanisms. We argue the future is not fixed and society now has greater foresight and capacity to choose the workable balance between fisheries and aquaculture that supports economic, environmental, cultural and social objectives through combined planning, policies, and management.
机译：新石器时代革命开始大约10,000年前，其特点是终极，几乎完全过渡狩猎和聚集在土地上的农业食品生产。通过局部人口压力，文化扩散，产权和气候变化的组合，据认为，新石器时代的革命被认为是催化。我们进行了一个思想实验，检查了这些关键假设催化剂的趋势，这些关键的假设催化剂的新石器时代的革命催化剂和今天的模式探讨了社会是否可以在粮食生产中的另一个范式转变的道路上：远离野生鱼在过渡到大多数鱼的过渡农业。我们发现类似的环境和文化压力推动了水产养殖的迅速崛起，现在已经创造了蓝色革命，为几十年到几个世纪（而不是千年）提供了这种过渡的推动力。然而，我们还突出了1）技术和科学进步，2）环境意识和集体行动和3）全球化和贸易影响新石英革命的模式和过程的全球化和贸易量的全球化和贸易。我们提出了两种定性叙述，广泛地落入了海鲜生产的两个未来轨迹：1）普遍存在的水产养殖过渡和2）商业水产养殖和渔业共存。每个叙述都有两个基于水产养殖和渔业的不同管理和监管策略的子叙述。这种情况方法旨在鼓励对复杂系统的逻辑，前瞻性思维和创新解决方案？动力学。基于情景的思维实验对于探索大规模问题有助于探索大规模的问题，增加更广泛的读者仓位的可访问性，理想地催化围绕主动治理机制的讨论。我们认为未来并非固定，社会现在有更大的预见和能力选择渔业和水产养殖之间的可行性平衡，通过组合规划，政策和管理支持经济，环境，文化和社会目标。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2021年第6期|105574.1-105574.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Kuempel Caitlin D.; Froehlich Halley E.; Halpern Benjamin S.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Calif Santa Barbara Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth 735 State St Suite 300 Santa Barbara CA 93101 USA|Univ Queensland Sch Biol Sci St Lucia Qld 4072 Australia|Univ Queensland Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies St Lucia Qld 4072 Australia|Univ Queensland Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci St Lucia Qld 4072 Australia;

    Univ Calif Santa Barbara Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth 735 State St Suite 300 Santa Barbara CA 93101 USA|Univ Calif Santa Barbara Environm Studies Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA|Univ Calif Santa Barbara Ecol Evolut & Marine Biol Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA;

    Univ Calif Santa Barbara Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth 735 State St Suite 300 Santa Barbara CA 93101 USA|Univ Calif Santa Barbara Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Aquaculture; Blue revolution; Ecosystem-based fisheries management; Neolithic revolution; Seafood;

    机译：水产养殖;蓝色革命;基于生态系统的渔业管理;新石器时代的革命;海鲜;

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