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Predictability of storm wave heights in the ice-free Beaufort Sea

机译：无冰博福特海中风暴波高度的可预测性

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A predictability study on wave forecast of the Arctic Ocean is necessary to help identify hazardous areas and ensure sustainable shipping along the trans-Arctic routes. To assist with validation of the Arctic Ocean wave model, two drifting wave buoys were deployed off Point Barrow, Alaska for two months in September 2016. Both buoys measured significant wave heights exceeding 4 m during two different storm events on 19 September and 22 October. The NOAA-WAVEWATCH IIIa"c model with 16-km resolution was forced using wind and sea ice reanalysis data and obtained general agreement with the observation. The September storm was reproduced well; however, model accuracy deteriorated in October with a negative wave height bias of around 1 m during the October storm. Utilising reanalysis data, including the most up-to-date ERA5, this study investigated the cause: grid resolution, wind and ice forcing, and in situ sea level pressure observations assimilated for reanalysis. The analysis has found that there is a 20% reduction of in situ SLP observations in the area of interest, presumably due to fewer ships and deployment options during the sea ice advance period. The 63-member atmospheric ensemble reanalysis, ALERA2, has shown that this led to a larger ensemble spread in the October monthly mean wind field compared to September. Since atmospheric physics is complex during sea ice advance, it is speculated that the elevated uncertainty of synoptic-scale wind caused the negative wave model bias. This has implications for wave hindcasts and forecasts in the Arctic Ocean.
机译：需要对北冰洋的波浪预报进行可预测性研究，以帮助识别危险区域并确保跨北极航线的可持续运输。为了帮助验证北冰洋海浪模型，2016年9月在阿拉斯加的Point Barrow部署了两个漂流浮标，为期两个月。两个浮标在9月19日和10月22日的两次不同风暴事件中测得的重要波高均超过4 m。使用风和海冰的再分析数据强行使用分辨率为16 km的NOAA-WAVEWATCH IIIa“ c模型，并获得了与观测值的总体一致。很好再现了9月的风暴；但是，10月的模型精度由于负波高度偏差而下降。这项研究利用包括最新ERA5在内的再分析数据，调查了原因：网格分辨率，风和冰的强迫作用以及被同化用于再分析的原位海平面压力观测结果。研究发现，在感兴趣的地区，原位SLP观测值减少了20％，这大概是由于海冰超前时期船只和部署选项的减少。由63个成员组成的大气集合再分析ALERA2表明，这导致了与9月相比，10月月平均风场的集合扩展更大，由于海冰前进期间大气物理学很复杂，因此推测不确定性升高f天气尺度风引起负波模型偏差。这对北冰洋的波后预报和预报有影响。

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