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The effect of density stratification on the prediction of global storm surges

机译：密度分层对全球风暴潮预报的影响

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摘要

With the long-term goal of developing an operational forecast system for total water level, we conduct a hindcast study of global storm surges for Fall 2014 using a baroclinic ocean model based on the NEMO framework. The model has 19 vertical levels, a horizontal resolution of 1/12A degrees, and is forced by hourly forecasts of atmospheric wind and air pressure. Our first objective is to evaluate the model's ability to predict hourly sea levels recorded by a global array of 257 tide gauges. It is shown that the model can provide reasonable predictions of surges for the whole test period at tide gauges with relatively large tidal residuals (i.e., gauges where the standard deviation of observed sea level, after removal of the tide, exceeds 5 cm). Our second objective is to quantify the effect of density stratification on the prediction of global surges. It is found that the inclusion of density stratification increases the overall predictive skill at almost all tide gauges. The increase in skill for the instantaneous peak surge is smaller. The location for which the increase in overall skill is largest (east coast of South Africa) is discussed in detail and physical reasons for the improvement are given.
机译：为了开发总水位运行预测系统的长期目标，我们使用基于NEMO框架的斜压海洋模型对2014年秋季的全球风暴潮进行了后瞻性研究。该模型具有19个垂直高度，水平分辨率为1 / 12A度，并且受到每小时对大气风和气压的预测的推动。我们的第一个目标是评估该模型预测由257个潮汐仪全球阵列记录的每小时海平面的能力。结果表明，该模型可以为潮汐残量较大的潮汐仪（即潮汐去除后观测海平面的标准偏差超过5厘米的规范）提供整个测试期间浪涌的合理预测。我们的第二个目标是量化密度分层对全球涌浪预测的影响。已经发现，包括密度分层在内的几乎所有潮汐仪都提高了整体预测能力。瞬时峰值电涌的技能提高较小。详细讨论了综合技能提升最大的地区（南非东海岸），并给出了提高该技能的物理原因。

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