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Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

机译：气候变化对波斯湾波浪能的影响

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摘要

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.
机译：化石燃料的过度使用和温室气体的高排放增加了地球的温度，因此改变了自然现象的模式，例如风速，波高等。可再生能源是减少温室效应的理想替代品。气体排放和气候变化。但是，这些能源对气候变化也很敏感。在这项研究中，研究了气候变化对波斯湾波浪能的影响。为此，使用混合方法对从CGCM3.1模型获得的未来风数据进行了缩减，并基于局部风数据（ECMWF）计算了修正因子，并将其应用于控制和未来CGCM3.1风数据。在A2，B1和A1B情景下，使用缩小的风数据来生成未来的波浪特征，而在控制期内，使用ECMWF风场来生成波浪特征。这两个使用SWAN模型的30年波浪模型的结果表明，未来平均波浪功率会略有变化。对波能空间分布的评估表明，平均波能的减少在波斯湾中部更为明显。对两个沿海站（Boushehr和Assalouyeh港口）的波浪功率分布进行的调查表明，这两个站的年波浪能都会减少，而在Assalouyeh中，不同波高和高峰时段的不同时间段的波浪功率分布也会根据所有情况而变化。

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