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North Sea wave conditions: an analysis of four transient future climate realizations

机译：北海波浪条件：对四个暂时性未来气候实现的分析

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摘要

The multi-decadal wave conditions in the North Sea can be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. That may lead to the intensification of wave extremes in the future and consequently increase risks for the coastal areas as well as for on- and offshore human activities. Potential changes caused by alteration of atmospheric patterns are investigated. Four transient climate projections (1961-2100), reflecting two IPCC emission scenarios (AIB and B1) and two different initial states, are used to simulate the wave scenarios. The potential wind-induced changes in waves are studied by comparing future statistics (2001-2100) with the corresponding reference conditions (1961-2000). Generally, there is a small increase in future 99th percentile significant wave height for most eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century. This small increase is superimposed by a strong variability of the annual extremes on time scales of decades. Opposite to the differences in wave height, the change in wave direction to more waves propagating east shows less decadal variability and is more uniform among all realizations. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial differences of the wave height in the four climate projections point to the uncertainties in the climate change signals.
机译：人为的气候变化可能会影响北海的多年代际波浪状况。这可能会导致未来极端海浪的加剧，并因此增加沿海地区以及海上和海上人类活动的风险。研究了由大气模式改变引起的潜在变化。反映两个IPCC排放情景（AIB和B1）和两个不同的初始状态的四个瞬时气候预测（1961-2100）用于模拟海浪情景。通过将未来的统计数据（2001-2100）与相应的参考条件（1961-2000）进行比较，研究了风的潜在风浪变化。通常，到21世纪末，北海大部分东部地区未来99％的显着海浪高度将有小幅增加。在几十年的时间尺度上，年度极端变化的剧烈变化叠加了这一小幅增长。与波高的差异相反，波向向东传播的更多波的变化显示年代际变化较小，并且在所有实现中均更为均匀。然而，四个气候预测中波高的时间和空间差异表明了气候变化信号的不确定性。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Dynamics》 |2014年第1期|1-12|共12页
  • 作者

    Nikolaus Groll; Iris Grabemann; Lidia Gaslikova;

  • 作者单位

    Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Material and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1.21502 Geesthacht, Germany;

    Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Material and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1.21502 Geesthacht, Germany;

    Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Material and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1.21502 Geesthacht, Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Ocean waves; Climate change; Extreme events; North Sea; Wave modeling;

    机译：海浪;气候变化;极端事件;北海;波浪建模;

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