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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Dynamics >Comparison between modelling and measurement of marine dispersion, environmental half-time and 137Cs inventories after the Fukushima Daiichi accident
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Comparison between modelling and measurement of marine dispersion, environmental half-time and 137Cs inventories after the Fukushima Daiichi accident

机译：福岛第一核电站事故后海洋扩散，环境中途时间和137Cs清单的建模和测量比较

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摘要

Contamination of the marine environment following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) represents the most important influx of artificial radioactivity released into the sea ever recorded. The evaluation, in near real time, of the total amount of radionuclide released at sea and of the residence time in coastal waters were ones of challenges for nuclear authorities during this event. In the framework of a crisis situation, a numerical hydrodynam-ical model has been built and used 'as is'. The concomitant use of this numerical model and in situ data allows the comparison of the simulated and measured environmental half-times. A tuning of the wind drag coefficient has been nevertheless necessary to reproduce the evolution of measured inventories of ~(137)Cs and ~(134)Cs between April and June 2011. After tuning, the relative mean absolute error between measured and simulated concentrations for the 849 measurements in the dataset is 69 %, while the relative bias indicates a model underestimation of 4 %. These results confirm the estimates of the source term, i.e. 27 PBq (12-41 PBq) for direct releases and 3 PBq for atmospheric deposition onto the sea. The parameters applied here to simulate atmospheric deposition onto the sea are within the correct order of magnitude for reproducing seawater concentrations. Quantitative inventories of tracers which integrate dispersion and transport processes are useful to test model reliability. It exhausts the model sensibility to meteorological forcing, which remains difficult to appraise to reproduce mid- to long-term transport.
机译：福岛第一核电站事故发生后，海洋环境受到污染，这是有记录以来向海洋释放的最重要的人工放射性流入。在此事件中，几乎实时地评估海上释放的放射性核素总量以及在沿海水域的停留时间是核当局面临的挑战之一。在危机情况的框架内，建立了数值流体动力学模型并“按原样”使用。结合使用此数字模型和原位数据可以比较模拟和测量的环境半衰期。尽管如此，仍然需要对风阻系数进行调整，以再现2011年4月至2011年6月之间〜（137）Cs和〜（134）Cs的实测存量的变化。调整之后，实测和模拟浓度之间的相对平均绝对误差为数据集中的849个测量值占69％，而相对偏差则表明模型低估了4％。这些结果证实了源项的估算，即直接释放为27 PBq（12-41 PBq），大气沉积到海中为3 PBq。此处用于模拟大气在海洋上的沉积的参数在正确的数量级内，用于再现海水浓度。集成了分散和传输过程的示踪剂的定量清单对于测试模型的可靠性很有用。它用尽了模型对气象强迫的敏感性，这仍然难以评估以重现中长期运输。

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