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Downscaling IPCC control run and future scenario with focus on the Barents Sea

机译：缩小IPCC控制运行规模和未来方案，重点关注巴伦支海

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Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the tool by which projections for climate changes due to radiative forcing scenarios have been produced. Further, regional atmospheric downscaling of the global models may be applied in order to evaluate the details in, e.g., temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, detailed regional information is needed in order to assess the implications of future climate change for the marine ecosystems. However, regional results for climate change in the ocean are sparse. We present the results for the circulation and hydrography of the Barents Sea from the ocean component of two global models and from a corresponding pair of regional model configurations. The global models used are the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3. The ROMS ocean model is used for the regional downscaling of these results (ROMS-G and ROMS-N configurations, respectively). This investigation was undertaken in order to shed light on two questions that are essential in the context of regional ocean projections: (1) How should a regional model be set up in order to take advantage of the results from global projections; (2) What limits to quality in the results of regional models are imposed by the quality of global models? We approached the first question by initializing the ocean model in the control simulation by a realistic ocean analysis and specifying air-sea fluxes according to the results from the global models. For the projection simulation, the global models' oceanic anomalies from their control simulation results were added upon initialization. Regarding the second question, the present set of simulations includes regional downscalings of the present-day climate as well as projected climate change. Thus, we study separately how downscaling changes the results in the control climate case, and how scenario results are changed. For the present-day climate, we find that downscaling reduces the differences in the Barents Sea between the original global models. Furthermore, the downscaled results are closer to observations. On the other hand, the downscaled results from the scenario simulations are significantly different: while the heat transport into the Barents Sea and the salinity distribution change modestly from control to scenario with ROMS-G, in ROMS-N the heat transport is much larger in the scenario simulation, and the water masses become much less saline. The lack of robustness in the results from the scenario simulations leads us to conclude that the results for the regional oceanic response to changes in the radiative forcing depend on the choice of AOGCM and is not settled. Consequently, the effect of climate change on the marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea is anything but certain.
机译：全球大气-海洋总循环模型是产生辐射强迫情景引起的气候变化预测的工具。此外，可以应用全局模型的区域大气缩小比例，以便评估例如温度和降水模式的细节。同样，需要详细的区域信息，以评估未来气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响。但是，海洋气候变化的区域结果很少。我们从两个全球模型的海洋成分以及相应的一对区域模型配置中展示了巴伦支海的环流和水文学结果。使用的全局模型是GISS AOM和NCAR CCSM3。 ROMS海洋模型用于这些结果的区域缩减（分别为ROMS-G和ROMS-N配置）。进行这项调查是为了阐明在区域海洋预测的背景下必不可少的两个问题：（1）如何建立区域模型以利用全球预测的结果； （2）全局模型的质量对区域模型结果的质量有何限制？我们提出了第一个问题，即通过逼真的海洋分​​析在控制仿真中初始化海洋模型，并根据全局模型的结果指定海气通量。对于投影仿真，初始化时会添加全局模型从其控制仿真结果中得出的海洋异常。关于第二个问题，当前的模拟包括当今气候以及预计的气候变化的区域缩减。因此，我们分别研究了降尺度如何改变控制气候情况下的结果以及情景结果如何变化。对于当今的气候，我们发现缩小规模可以缩小原始全球模型之间在巴伦支海的差异。此外，按比例缩小的结果更接近于观察结果。另一方面，情景模拟的降尺度结果则有很大不同：使用ROMS-G，从热量转移到巴伦支海和盐度分布从控制到情景之间适度变化，而在ROMS-N中，热量的传输要大得多。在场景模拟中，水团的盐分变得少得多。情景模拟结果缺乏鲁棒性，使我们得出结论，区域海洋对辐射强迫变化的响应结果取决于AOGCM的选择，因此尚未解决。因此，气候变化对巴伦支海海洋生态系统的影响尚无定论。

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