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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Dynamics >Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models
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Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

机译：气候变化和北海风暴潮极端：由四种不同的区域气候模型预测的变化的气候中预期的风暴潮极端的整体研究

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The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.
机译：由于人为气候变化，沿海地区面临着风暴潮统计数字变化的前景。在当前的研究中，我们基于数值模拟研究了北海的这些前景。主要工具是正压潮涌模型TRIMGEO（潮汐残差和潮间带泥滩模型），用于从大气条件中得出风暴潮的气候和极端情况。通过在当今以及未来可能增强的温室气体条件下进行的四个30年大气区域模拟合奏来进行分析。大气区域模拟是在欧盟项目PRUDENCE（定义欧洲气候变化风险和影响的区域情景和不确定性的预测）中准备的。 PRUDENCE的研究策略是比较由相同的全球控制和气候变化模拟驱动的不同区域模型的模拟。这些代表1961-1990年和2071-2100年的全球条件是由哈德利中心根据IPCC A2 SRES情景准备的。结果表明，在未来的气候条件下，到本世纪末，风暴潮的极端值可能会在北海沿岸增加。根据不同集合成员的结果之间的比较以及根据最近几十年的高分辨率风暴潮重建估算的变异性，发现在大多数情况下，在95％置信度下，此增量与零显着不同。北海海岸。一个例外是英国的东海岸，不受风暴潮极端事件增加的影响。

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