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Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

机译：当今海平面变化的观点：向克里斯蒂安·普罗沃斯特致敬

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In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840-842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.'s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993-2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/ year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.
机译：在本文中，我们首先讨论Cabanes等人的工作有争议的结果。 （Science 294：840-842，2001），他认为过去的海平面上升的速度可能被高估了，因为历史潮汐仪的位置有限且种类繁多，而热膨胀的区域性高波动性本应占主导地位观测到的海平面。如果正确，这一结论将解决IPCC第三次评估报告提出的问题[Church等。剑桥大学出版社，剑桥，第881页，2001年]，即20世纪观测到的海平面上升与计算出的气候贡献之间的因子二差异。但是，最近基于新的海洋温度数据集进行的调查表明，热膨胀仅解释了过去几十年观测到的1.8毫米/年海平面上升的一部分（约0.4毫米/年）。实际上，Cabanes等人的结论是不正确的，原因是墨西哥湾流地区异常高的海洋温度数据被污染，导致该地区的热膨胀过高。在本文中，我们还使用新的海洋温度和盐度数据库估算了过去十年（1993-2003年）的热膨胀。我们将我们的结果与其他三个估算值进行比较，其中两个基于全局网格数据集，另一个基于与此处开发的方法类似的方法。发现在过去十年中平均热海平面上升速率为1.5±0.3毫米/年，即卫星测高仪观测到的3毫米/年的平均水平的50％。对于过去几十年和最近十年的两个时间跨度，1.4毫米/年的贡献都无法用热膨胀来解释，因此必须来自水团。近年来对陆地冰融化的直接估计导致海平面上升约1毫米/年。因此，至少在过去十年中，我们比IPCC的第三次评估报告更接近于解释观测到的海平面上升速率。

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