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The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: application to the thermohaline circulation

机译:光谱特性在探测地球系统阈值中的潜在作用:在热盐循环中的应用

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摘要

A simple two-box model of the hemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) is considered. The model parameterizes fluctuations in the freshwater forcing by a stochastic process. The dependence of the power spectral density and the lifetime of quasistationary states of the THC on the distance to the bifurcation point, where the THC collapses, is calculated analytically. It is shown that power spectral properties change as the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point. These changes allow an estimate of the distance to the bifurcation point.
机译:考虑了半球热盐环流(THC)的简单两盒模型。该模型通过随机过程参数化了淡水强迫的波动。通过分析计算出THC的功率谱密度和准静态状态的寿命与到分叉点的距离(THC塌陷的距离)之间的关系。结果表明,随着系统移近分叉点,功率谱特性发生变化。这些变化允许估计到分叉点的距离。

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