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Long-term statistics of potentially hazardous sea states in the North Sea 1958-2014

机译：1958-2014年北海潜在危险海况的长期统计

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摘要

Significant wave height and mean wave period are two of the most commonly used parameters to describe wave climate, wave climate variability, and their potential long-term changes. While these parameters are generally useful to characterize the distribution of waves within a given sea state, they provide less information about potentially high-risk situations. Over the recent years, a number of criteria were suggested that are considered to better characterize high-risk situations and which could bear a potential for the development of safety warning indices. Based on a multi-decadal high-resolution wind-wave hindcast, a climatology of such parameters is developed for the North Sea covering the years 1958-2014. More specifically, average conditions, inter-annual variability and long-term changes for unusually steep, rapidly developing and crossing sea states are considered. Generally, there are pronounced spatial variations in the frequency of such sea states, while over time, there is some seasonal and inter-annual variability but no substantial long-term trend could be identified.
机译：重要的波浪高度和平均波浪周期是描述波浪气候，波浪气候变异性及其潜在长期变化的两个最常用参数。尽管这些参数通常可用于表征给定海况下的海浪分布，但它们提供的有关潜在高风险情况的信息较少。近年来，提出了一些标准，这些标准被认为可以更好地描述高风险情况，并且可能对安全警告指数的发展具有潜在的作用。基于多年代际高分辨率风波后兆，为北海开发了此类参数的气候学，涵盖了1958-2014年。更具体地说，考虑了异常陡峭，快速发展和跨越海域的平均条件，年际变化和长期变化。通常，此类海况的频率存在明显的空间变化，而随着时间的流逝，存在一些季节性和年际变化，但无法确定实质性的长期趋势。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Dynamics》 |2018年第11期|1559-1570|共12页
  • 作者

    Teich Tobias; Groll Nikolaus; Weisse Ralf;

  • 作者单位

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Ctr Mat & Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany|Hamburg Univ Technol, Hamburg, Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Ctr Mat & Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Ctr Mat & Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Ocean waves; Extreme waves; Climate change; North Sea;

    机译：海浪;极端海浪;气候变化;北海;

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