Extension of sea surface temperature unpredictability

Akhmet Marat; Fen Mehmet Onur; Alejaily Ejaily Milad

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Extension of sea surface temperature unpredictability

机译：扩大海面温度的不可预测性

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摘要

The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is clearly affected by global climate patterns, which involve large-scale ocean-atmosphere fluctuations similar to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We give mathematical arguments for the SST to be unpredictable over oceans. Sensitivity (unpredictability) is the core ingredient of chaos. Several researches suggested that the ENSO might be chaotic. It was Vallis (Science 232:243-245, 1986) who revealed unpredictability in ENSO by reducing his model to the Lorenz equations. We discuss the unpredictability for SST as an extendable phenomenon through coupled Vallis ENSO models and advection equations by using theoretical as well as numerical analyses. To perform theoretical research, we apply our recent results on replication of chaos and unpredictable solutions of differential equations, while for numerical analysis, we combine results on unpredictable solutions with numerical analysis of chaos in the advection equation.

机译：海面温度（SST）的变化显然受到全球气候模式的影响，全球气候模式涉及类似于El Nino-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）的大规模海洋-大气波动。我们给出了SST在海洋上不可预测的数学论据。敏感性（不可预测性）是混乱的核心因素。多项研究表明ENSO可能很混乱。正是瓦利斯（Science 232：243-245，1986）通过将他的模型简化为洛伦兹方程式揭示了ENSO中的不可预测性。我们通过耦合的Vallis ENSO模型和对流方程，使用理论和数值分析，讨论了SST作为可扩展现象的不可预测性。为了进行理论研究，我们将最近的结果应用于混沌的复制和微分方程的不可预测的解，而对于数值分析，我们将不可预测的解的结果与对流方程中的混沌的数值分析相结合。

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《Ocean Dynamics》 |2019年第2期|145-156|共12页
作者
Akhmet Marat; Fen Mehmet Onur; Alejaily Ejaily Milad;
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作者单位

Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Math, TR-06800 Ankara, Turkey;

TED Univ, Dept Math, TR-06420 Ankara, Turkey;

Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Math, TR-06800 Ankara, Turkey;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Sea surface temperature; Unpredictability extension; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Vallis model; Advection equation;

机译：海面温度;不可预测性扩展;厄尔尼诺-南方涛动;Vallis模型;平流方程;

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机译：黑潮-大潮扩展区海面温度异常的季节性可预测性：夏季低，冬季高
2. Role of Sea Surface Temperature over the Kuroshio Extension Region on Heavy Rainfall Events over the Korean Peninsula [J] . Ham Yoo-Geun, Na Hye-Yun, Oh Seol-Hee Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences . 2019,第1期

机译：黑潮延伸区海面温度对朝鲜半岛暴雨事件的影响
3. Position variability of the Kuroshio Extension sea surface temperature front [J] . WANG Yanxin, YANG Xiaoyi, HU Jianyu 海洋学报（英文版） . 2016,第007期

机译：黑潮延伸海面温度锋的位置变化
4. Extension of the generalized split-window algorithm for land surface temperature retrieval to atmospheres with air temperature inversion [C] . Chuan Zhan, Bo-Hui Tang, Zhao-Liang Li, 2017 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium . 2017

机译：广义分裂窗口算法在地表温度反演中扩展至大气温度反演的大气
5. An investigation of the relationship between the skin temperature of the sea surface and the temperature of the dynamically significant surface layer. [D] . Lobb, Meghan Grace. 2012

机译：研究海表的皮肤温度与动态有效表层温度之间的关系。
6. Anucleate cell production and surface extension in a temperature-sensitive chromosome initiation mutant of Bacillus subtilis. [O] . M G Sargent 1975

机译：枯草芽孢杆菌温度敏感型染色体起始突变体中无核细胞的产生和表面延伸。
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。
8. New Heat Flux Formulation Based on Effective Surface Temperatures, With Extension to the Nocturnal Boundary Layer [R] . Mahrt, L. , Sun, J. 1999

机译：基于有效表面温度的新型热通量配方，延伸到夜间边界层

Extension of sea surface temperature unpredictability

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