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Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters

机译：潮汐-潮汐相互作用及其对爱尔兰沿海水域总海平面的影响

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摘要

The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.
机译：本文介绍的研究涉及联合概率方法在天文学潮汐和潮汐残差产生的极端水位估算中的应用，以及潮汐—潮气相互作用对极端水位影响的研究。从实地记录（<20年）和每月最大潮汐振幅的46年数据集中分析了潮汐峰值的分布。从现场记录和数值模拟后预报中提取了大浪潮，这些数值预报涵盖了1959-2005年间爱尔兰海的48个最大的风暴事件。使用广义的极值统计模型对极端风暴潮和潮汐进行独立建模，然后使用得出的概率分布来计算极端水位。该研究的一个重要且新颖的方面是潮汐-潮汐相互作用及其对总水位的影响的分析。在存在相互作用的地方，它们导致的总水位比在独立情况下要低。减小的程度随相互作用强度，潮汐特定阶段的浪涌峰的大小以及潮汐周期内峰的分布而变化。因此，在海岸保护系统的设计阶段，将相互作用包括在极端水平的计算中可能会提供非常有用的信息。

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