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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean Dynamics >Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction
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Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

机译：通过潮汐，潮汐和非线性相互作用的直接模型，改进了对西北欧洲大陆架和北海的水位预报

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In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.
机译：在西北欧洲陆架的实时沿海业务预报系统中，潮汐-潮汐模型的表示精度通常会受到潮汐表示精度不足的困扰，尤其是在具有复杂水深和几何形状的浅海近海地区。因此，在常规的操作系统中，使用了来自数值模型仿真的浪涌分量，同时添加了从潮汐仪测量的谐波分析中准确知道的谐波预测潮汐，以预测潮汐仪位置的全部水位信号。尽管存在与所谓的天文学校正相关的误差（例如，由于潮汐和潮汐线性关系的假设），但是对于当前的运行模型，天文学校正已显示出可提高整个水位信号的表示精度。通过潮汐-潮汐非线性相互作用对潮汐进行的模拟调制受到潮汐-潮汐模型中潮汐信号表示不佳的影响，而天文学校正并没有改善。此外，天文校正只能应用于通过潮汐仪站现场测量的谐波分析已知天文潮的位置。这为改善预报中使用的数值模型的潮汐和潮汐表示提供了强大的动力。在本文中，我们为西北欧洲大陆架（DCSMv6）提出了新一代的潮汐潮模型。这是该规模的第一个应用，其中潮汐表示使得天文学校正不再提高总水位表示的准确性，因此，直接的直接模型预测总水位更好。讨论了用于改善潮汐和潮汐表示的方法，重点是使用卫星高度计数据和数据同化技术来减少参数不确定性。将历史DCSMv6模型仿真与整个日历年的货架期观测值进行比较。在选择测站时，将这些结果与经过天文校正的结果进行了比较，这证实了沿海地区的潮汐表示具有足够的准确性，并且预测总水位直接产生了优异的结果。

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