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Probabilistic modelling of the drifting trajectory of an object under the effect of wind and current for maritime search and rescue

机译：风和海流作用下海事搜索和救援物体漂移轨迹的概率模型

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摘要

The problem of trajectory prediction for unpowered drifting objects under the effect of current and wind is studied in this paper. A probabilistic model is proposed to predict the object's velocity and position at every moment in a sequential way. The objective is to make an optimal estimation of the current and wind velocities near the object using observations of the spatial correlated velocity fields. According to the leeway dynamics model, the object's velocity is the weighted average of current and wind speeds. Extensive simulations are performed and the influence of parameters, such as the uncertainties on current and wind velocities, the frequencies and resolutions of the fields, on the performance of the algorithm are also analyzed. Simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm works well and the object's true position lies within the 99.7% confidence area. Increasing the reliability and resolution of wind or current field's data would enhance the precision in predicting the object's position. The effect of wind and current depends to a large degree on the drifting object's volume above and below the water.
机译：研究了在风和风作用下无动力漂流物体的轨迹预测问题。提出了一种概率模型，以顺序方式预测物体在每个时刻的速度和位置。目的是使用空间相关速度场的观测值，对物体附近的风速和风速进行最佳估计。根据回旋动力学模型，对象的速度是电流和风速的加权平均值。进行了广泛的仿真，并分析了参数的影响，例如对风速和风速的不确定性，磁场的频率和分辨率，对算法性能的影响。仿真结果表明，该算法效果良好，目标的真实位置在99.7％的置信区间内。提高风或当前场数据的可靠性和分辨率将提高预测对象位置的精度。风和流的影响在很大程度上取决于漂流物体在水上方和下方的体积。

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